Republicans have a political problem with moderates in the suburbs who need to vote for GOP candidates in the upcoming elections because of the overturned abortion law. The story of a rape victim who crossed state lines to get an abortion in Indiana is showing how damaging the issue may be. One prominent Republican strategist said "Oh, God no" after members of his party suggested the victim should have carried the baby to term. One person said it was very bad. One anti-abortion rights Indiana Republican strategist said that he was not going to touch the story with a 10-foot pole wrapped in a blanket. In the three weeks since the Supreme Court ruled on the legality of abortion, Republicans have been trying to keep their focus on President Joe Biden's weak job approval ratings and inflation, fearing that abortion could cause a backlash. The case has become an instant flash point in the nation's abortion wars, alarming Republicans as they try to use abortion to rally base voters without alienating the majority of Americans who say abortion should remain legal in at least some circumstances The case of the pregnant 10-year-old has shown how uncontrollable GOP messaging can be. Right-wing media outlets and Republican politicians cast doubt on the story and had to backtrack once the facts of the case were confirmed. Jim Bopp, the National Right to Life Committee's general counsel, told POLITICO on Thursday that the 10-year-old girl should have carried her pregnancies to term and that he received death threats.
The story is unlikely to go away quickly. The state legislature in Indiana will convene a special session later this month to pass new curbs on abortion, becoming the first state to do so in the wake of the Dobbs decision.
John Thomas is a Republican strategist who works on House campaigns across the country. These kinds of unforced errors are lifelines for the Democrats.
The Indiana case has come up in at least one race that Thomas is working on and he has advised candidates to avoid the topic. You try to find a solution to the problem.
Scott Reed said that Biden's cost of living is a wasted day politically. We have a historic opportunity this November, and let's not let it go to waste.
One of the national GOP strategists who works on several high-profile campaigns said that the parts of anti-abortion legislation that make moderate voters squeamish could be highlighted.
The strategist said that while his comments are well-intended, they don't reflect the realities of this case or the electorate. His comments open the door for swing district Republicans to be labeled as extremists and erode the gains we have made with suburban women that will be crucial to winning in the next two elections.
For weeks, the expectation among both Democratic and Republican political professionals had been that it would not be enough to stop Republicans from gaining a majority in the House in November.
The electoral landscape is so bleak for Democrats this year that they are likely to sustain widespread losses regardless of the outcome of the abortion debate. By November, said Dave Carney, a national Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, "it's not going to matter what Bopp or whatever..." It won't be able to beat 9.1 percent inflation.
Since the court ruled on the legality of abortion, it has become a top priority. Even a shift at the margins may be consequential in close House races and statewide contests.
Sean Walsh is a Republican strategist who worked in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush White Houses.
Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who was a co- founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said that it hurts because it sets the frames of the GOP position as "extreme". The case won't be remembered in a few weeks, but the steady trickle of stories coming will have a definite cumulative impact.
Conservatives in Washington may have to focus on the most conservative elements of the party's position on abortion. Only five states have exceptions for rape or incest after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the ban.
Mike O'Brien is a Republican who worked for former Gov.Mitch Daniels.
He told POLITICO that those who were hoping for a bill with exceptions would point to this as an example of a horrible situation. Legislators aren't going to get off that easy with the pro-life lobby who already doubled down on a bill
In South Carolina, where the legislature passed a law prohibiting abortions after the detection of fetal cardiac activity, they are considering going further. Sandy Senn, the only Republican senator to vote against the measure, thinks that abortion should be legal through the first trimester. She thinks that voters will take it out on Republicans in the election.
When women vote on the abortion issue, their voices might be heard at the ballot box. Rape and incest victims, many of whom are children themselves, should not be required to carry children through birth just because a heartbeat can be detected.
Republicans who oppose such exceptions are not sure of the politics of it. The chair of the ad hoc committee on abortion in South Carolina is against exceptions for rape or incest. He is unsure if his Republican colleagues agree with him.
He expects the vote to be tighter if the legislation does not have rape and incest exceptions.
It will be a close vote if the bill gets through the Judiciary Committee and goes to the floor.
Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, said he will try to get lawmakers in his state to not change their minds on exceptions when they meet later this year.
He said that endorsed candidates signed surveys saying they wouldn't support exceptions. According to Gonidakis, the 10-year-old should have been able to get an abortion in Ohio because of the health risks. Clarifying the law is a question for state lawmakers, he said.
Both pro-choicers and pro-lifers should be discussing that at the statehouse. That is the reason we have a legislative body. Gonidakis said to have that discussion and talk about it.
In Indiana, the Democratic nominee for secretary of state said in an interview that she hoped the case would make anti- abortion lawmakers think twice about their legislation.
She hoped that the state of Ohio would slow down anti-abortion legislation by expecting a 10 year old to carry a rapist's child.
It's not clear if it will. The caucus members were not made available for interviews to discuss whether the specific case would affect the legislative approach.
When asked if the high-profile nature of the 10-year-old's case complicated the path toward further abortion restrictions in the special session, a former veteran Indiana GOP lawmaker told POLITICO, "I think everyone is aware of the case, but I don't." Rape, incest, and life of the mother are expected to be exceptions eventually.
He said that addressing pressure from interest groups on both sides of the issue is more important.
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