Lewandowski, Mbappe were Europe's xG kings last season, but Salah kept out of top three

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Every team needs a top goal scorer, but who are the other players most likely to score in Europe's top league?

Most people are familiar with the metric expected goals. A variety of shot type, shot position, goalkeeper position, chance type, assist type and pressure on the ball are some of the contextual factors used to calculate xG.

What's the final result? Adding up a player's expected goals can show us how many goals a player should have scored on average.

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A player with an xG of 10 and 11 goals has exceeded expectations. The average success rate in football is 0.77, so for this data we will only show non-penalty goals.

His 35 goals in 34 games last season put him on top of the xG charts across the major domestic league competition in Europe.

A man who is 10 years older than Lewandowski is next. The 19-year-old, who came close to joining Real Madrid for nothing this summer before signing a new contract with Paris Saint-Germain, had 28 goals and 17 assists in 35 games in the French league.

Which other attacking players had the highest xG number last season?

The transfer grades for Man United are an F.

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Goals, goals, goals

The leader of the way is Lewandowski. The Poland international scored all but two of his goals from inside the box in the Bundesliga last season.

His 156 shots are the most of any player in this list. That's a pretty good percentage.

Some of the usual suspects are on the list as well. There were 19 non-penalty goals from 98 shots for the new signing.

Anthony Modeste, who is 34 years old, scored five goals for FC Cologne last season, while Lois Openda, who is 22 years old, scored four goals for Vitesse.

Christopher Nkunku is the only player in the top 20 who could be considered more of a central figure than a goal scorer. His xG of 16.94 is better than the 19 non-penalty goals he scored last season.

The player has scored more difficult goals if the xG number is low and the goal number is high. Son Heung- Min scored 23 goals for Spurs.

Lionel Messi's 6 non-penalty goals from 89 shots last season at Paris Saint-Germain came at an xG of 11.38.

The next generation

The world-class attacker from Paris Saint-Germain, Kylian Mbappe, is already among the top players in the world, but which other young players made an impact in front of goal last season?

The Dutch Eredivisie has a star performer in the form of the aforementioned Openda. 18 non-penalty goals came at an xG of 16.77.

We can see why the Reds spent a lot of money to sign Darwin. He scored 22 goals last season, which was more than he was expected to do.

Man City's new 60m acquisition Erling Haaland had 16 Non-Penalty Goals from 74 shots at an XG of 13.94 during an injury-hit season.

If clubs are looking for a player who won't cost the same as these big names and is still likely to score with regularity, they would do worse than look at the rest of the top 20.