How Deandre Ayton Offer Sheet Impacts Kevin Durant Trade Market

The Phoenix Suns matched the Indiana Pacers' four-year, $133 million offer sheet for Deandre Ayton.

I'm making all this about the Kevin Durant trade sweepstakes.

The Ayton contract is not a joke. The Suns and Heat were on his list of preferred destinations, according to a previous report. The future of a top-15 player in NBA history is at stake in any major or could-be transactions involving either of them.

This exercise is important. Let's take a closer look at the aftermath.

Phoenix's Path to KD Is Getting Complicated

The Ayton deal doesn't affect the Suns chances of acquiring KD.

They are on the list. Even though he has four years left on his contract, that matters. Ayton was never going to be one of the main assets of the Brooklyn Nets.

When you need to plan your roster around Ben Simmons' finite range, maxing out another big man via sign-and-trade is not a good idea. That's an awful lot of trouble to go through for Ayton, who is neither a certified All-Star nor a proven self- creator.

Brooklyn would have to pay a luxury tax of over $150 million if it acquires any player via sign and trade. It's more than twenty million over that number. It would be difficult to take on Ayton.

Mike Vigil @protectedpick

The Nets appeared to not want Ayton and would have been hard capped. The Suns could bring Ayton back, make the strongest possible non-Ayton offer for KD (which if they didn’t want Ayton they would have had to anyway), then decide if Ayton stays or leaves later.

The Suns' offer for KD is greatly impacted by this deal.

With Ayton's unresolved free agency, they were able to sign-and-trade with facilitating parties who would send more assets Brooklyn's way. Sending out Ayton's salary in a KD deal would hopefully reduce the damage to the package. Maybe it wouldn't need to include anyone else.

It's off the table right now. Ayton can't be moved until January 15th and he can veto any trade for a full year.

BUT WAIT: Hope Is Far From Lost for the Suns

The convenience with which the Suns could strike a deal has been altered by all of this.

KD's salary is $44.1 million and Phoenix needs to pay over $35.2 million to get him. For his $21 million price point, Bridges must be included. Without supplementary assets from an Ayton sign-and-trade, the Suns aren't getting away with a lot of stuff.

They have to compete with Miami, Toronto or another dark horse. The Suns may need to part ways with both Crowder and Johnson. Their offer looks similar to Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, four first-rounders and three first-round swaps.

This does not mean that has to be the package. If the Nets wanted to get off Joe Harris, they could add other salaries. It might take a little less draft equity. Maybe the Nets will take Shamet instead of the Suns.

Who Has the Better KD Offer Now: Phoenix or Miami?

It's not clear how the Suns' maxed-out cupboard compares to other offers.

KD reported that the only other team on his list was the Heat. It's very much up in the air as to whether or not they're going to use it. They can't match KD's money if they don't include Kyle or Udonis.

There are three fully protected first-round picks and three first-round pick swaps. It's assumed that they can get the Oklahoma City Thunder to remove the protections on the first-round pick of the Heat.

Unless Brooklyn is enamored with the idea of shelling out near-max money for the extension eligible Herro, Phoenix has that framework beat.

Things get interesting at this point.

KD wanted outcomes to bubble to the surface. Speculation was limited by Phoenix's ability to offer the best package.

The Ayton deal could change the KD landscape to be more broad than it is currently narrow. If he believes the Nets will send him elsewhere without giving a damn about his initial preferences, he could expand his list of destinations.

How Does the Suns' Peak KD Offer Stack Up with the "Other" Favorite?

The Raptors are one of only a few teams that are interested in the KD situation. They may not be a favorite of KD, but team president Masai Ujiri is a genius.

Dangling Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, four firsts and three swaps doesn't give Phoenix a leg up over the Toronto package.

As expected, if Barnes is off the table, the Raptors' best offer is to pick a player. The Nets want to remain competitive after KD. The All-NBA player is also a self- creator. The offer of non-stars and a lot of picks was trounced by getting him on top of draft equity.

Anthony Doyle @Anthonysmdoyle

So basically... unless Brooklyn REALLY thinks they can convince KD to stay...

The Raptors might now be the clubhouse leaders?

If the Raptors aren't willing to sell, the Suns' offer would look better. They may not be. If you aren't on KD's list of desired landing spots, you need to pair him with him.

OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa and their entire draft through 2029 have been included in the Raptors' proposal. The combined value of OG and GTJ beats out the appeal of Bridges, Crowder and Johnson, but Trent can be a free agent next summer and Anunoby will be right behind him in 2024.

It's probably not a big deal. Both players could be paid by the Nets to stay, and the Suns' all-in package doesn't promise much more long-term security. Bridges is under contract for the next four years but both Crowder and Johnson are free agents next summer.

The choice between Phoenix's new best offer and Toronto's not- actually-all-in package most likely comes down to draft pick preference.

Robert Sarver still controls the team, Chris Paul is entering his age-37 season, and the Suns' future depends on whether or not KD is still in the league. Do you think the Raptors will go belly-up in the long term because Barnes and KD aren't particularly young, and because they don't have Toronto on their list?

Does KD Now Open Up the Trade Market?

The finite market for KD helps Phoenix at the moment. He may have four years left on his contract, but you don't have to worry about him not wanting to play for you.

Brooklyn can hope that the best offers coming out of Miami or Phoenix will come from them. The Nets might try to call his bluff. They might be prepared to keep him and Irving in next season.

If KD wants to leave the Nets, he needs to look at other teams. There are people who would not need to drain their asset pool if they were to acquire him.

Jason Maples @JJMaples55_MST

Masai isn't trading a lot for KD. The competitive market isn't there.Pelicans aren't putting Ingram on the table and the Ayton offer sheet kills a PHX offer

Unless the warriors decide to give up all their young guys + picks... who else making a serious offer?

Will he be able to talk himself into a title with Zion? Is there enough non-draft assets to cobble together a viable offer?

Is the Nets so committed to competing that they wouldn't allow the Milwaukee Bucks to join? Deni Avdija, Johnny Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, and every first-round pick and first-round swap of the Washington Wizards can be attractive to Brooklyn.

Does the Golden State Warriors factor into this equation? How much draft equity would they be willing to give up?

Is Jaren Jackson Jr. going to be included in a deal? Does a lot of draft equity stack up with the offers from Miami, Phoenix and Toronto?

The scope of KD's market isn't large enough to make these sweepstakes wide open. The Suns might still have the best package available to the Nets if Sarver doesn't whine. Their viability in this has always been dependent on how much they want them.

If the Ayton contract does anything, it increases the likelihood that Phoenix can't cobble together the best trade proposal for KD, and that KD will be persuaded to broaden the market he has created for himself.

Statistics courtesy of NBA.com, BasketballReference, Stathead Cleaning or the Glass, unless otherwise stated. Spotrac has salary information

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