Covid Quickly is a scientific American series.
This is a quick update on the COVID epidemic. We will show you the science behind the most important questions about the disease. We help you understand the research.
The person is named Lewis, he is also known as Tanya Lewis.
Josh Fischman is my name.
We are Scientific American's senior health editors. New Omicron subvariants are increasing cases and hospitalizations.
We will try to figure out if fall vaccine boosters should include standard Omicron or some of the new subvariants.
Is that what it is?
It's the height of summer here, and we're already seeing another surge of carbon dioxide. It is driven by the Omicron subvariants. We don't know much about them yet.
The lull that followed the last surge didn't last very long. The Omicron variant caused a huge wave earlier this year. More than 70 percent of COVID infections in the US are made up of BA.5 and BA.4.
It is worrying. We don't know if the subvariants are causing more severe disease.
There has been an increase in hospitalizations in countries around the world, including here in the US. More people will end up in the hospital as a result of getting infections. The numbers are what it is.
The man is right. The number of infections will go up even if the portion of severe disease remains the same. The subvariants are dominating in some countries. Is it possible that we can learn something from those places?
We can see a clear pattern elsewhere because each country has its own patchwork of immunity. In Portugal, they caused a spike in hospitalizations despite the country's high vaccination rate. This is happening all over the world.
Previous infections don't seem to protect against these variant as well.
That is correct. The people who had the original Omicron variant, BA.1, seem to have a higher rate of reinfection with the newer Omicron subvariants. It seems like hybrid immunity from vaccinations and infections no longer lasts that long.
Are we going to get confetti over and over again?
New booster shots that target Omicron's subvariants could be developed by vaccine makers. Those could help protect us.
Is that what it is?
There is a chance the U.S. could face another wave. We could have better shots to keep it from happening. What are the odds of that?
It looks like better boosters are on the way, you know what I mean. Will they be able to stop that fall wave in time? It depends on what vaccine makers put in them.
Lewis wants to know what the choices are.
Moderna and Pfizer are both working on shots for the Omicron variant, and Moderna said they could be ready by August.
New boosters should be built around the new subvariants of BA.4 and BA.5. The vaccine makers said the shots wouldn't be ready until October.
It will be too late to fight off the fall wave. Why don't you go the faster route?
The subvariants that are dominating new infections now are the ones that boosters use. Either they are the ones circulating in the fall or they are very similar.
The FDA was looking for boosters that were more likely to produce neutralizing antibodies. Lab tests show that vaccines built around Omicron don't do as well as they could. The subvariants are not the same as their ancestors.
The idea behind the boosters is to bring about broader based immunity. The shots contain genetic material from the original virus that hit us in 2020. The material from the new subvariants is used to teach the immune system to respond to a wide range of virus versions.
The boosters are supposed to be so effective that they can stop the new wave.
It's a race. I think the FDA was afraid that people would get re-infection if they used old Omicron-based boosters because they were convinced that people were getting re-infection by the subvariants.
The health officials were worried that people wouldn't get the boosters. That is an issue. Three-quarters of people who are eligible for boosters have not received them, and there is a perception that the shots are outdated. Peter Marks, who runs the FDA's vaccine office, hopes that effective boosters against the latest subvariants will convince a lot more people to get the vaccine.
If the fall virus is new, what will happen? Every couple of months, there is a new version.
It is a big risk. It's a good bet that the fall virus will be the same as the spring one, according to evolutionary biologists at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. All the recent changes keep new versions within the Omicron branch of the viruses family tree. He expects that trend to continue since those versions have been very popular.
The FDA and vaccine makers will be testing new boosters this summer to make sure they keep up.
Is that what it is?
You are up to speed. Thanks for listening to our show.
We are taking a short summer break for the next couple of weeks.
You have to take some time off even in a Pandemic.
It's especially in a Pandemic.
We will be back in the first week of August with a new show.
Check outSciAm.com for the latest COVID news.
This is a transcript of the show.
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