China Probably Won't 'Take Over' The Moon, Despite What The NASA Administrator Says

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson recently expressed concerns over China's aims in space, and in particular, that China would be able to stop other countries from exploring the moon.

Nelson warned in an interview with a German newspaper that we must be very concerned that China is going to land on the Moon. China denounced the claims as lies.

At a time when both nations are working on missions to the Moon, this spat between the administrator of NASA and Chinese government officials comes at a good time.

China was the first country to land a vehicle on the far side of the moon. The south pole of the Moon will be reached by China and Russia in the year 2066. The International Lunar Research Station will be built by the year 2027 according to some Chinese officials.

Setting up a lunar base in China is not the same as taking over the moon.

Neither China nor any other nation is likely to take over the Moon in the near future according to two scholars who study space security. The costs of such an endeavor would be high and the potential payoffs would be uncertain.

China is limited by international space law

Current international space law forbids China from taking over the moon. The Outer Space Treaty states that "Outer space, including the Moon and other heavenly bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means"

The treaty states that no country can take possession of the Moon and declare it an extension of its national ambitions. If China tried to do this it would be condemned by the international community.

The Outer Space Treaty allows any state to explore and use outer space, even if they can't claim ownership of the moon. There will be other visitors to the South Pole of the Moon.

The US-led Artemis Accords is a group of 20 countries that have plans to return humans to the Moon by 2025, which includes the establishment of a research station on the lunar surface.

Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the Moon, it is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556

The cumulative effect of the small steps that are taken to achieve a big change adds up to significant developments and increased control. This strategy has been used in the South and East China seas. It takes time and can be fixed.

Controlling the Moon is difficult

The Moon has a surface area of over 14 million square miles, which is five times the area of Australia.

China could try to gain control of certain areas on the moon, such as lunar craters with higher concentrations of water ice.

Humans won't need to be shipped from Earth to get water from the ice on the moon. Oxygen and hydrogen can be found in ice and could be used as rocket fuel. Water ice is a must for any mission to the moon or beyond.

Financial investments and long-term efforts are required to secure and enforce control of lunar areas. Everyone noticed that no country could do this alone.

Does China have the resources and capabilities?

China is spending a lot of money on space. The US led in the number of launches with 51. China is in the top three. China's state-owned StarNet space company is planning a megaconstellation of 12,992 satellites, and the country is almost done building the Tiangong space station.

Taking over the Moon would be more costly than going to the Moon. China's space budget is only half that of NASA's. The US and China both increased their space budgets in the year 2020.

Even with the increased spending, China doesn't seem to be investing the money necessary to take over the Moon.

If China were to take control of some part of the Moon, it would be a big deal. If China broke international law, it could invite reprisals and tarnish its international reputation. There are still uncertain payoffs that remain to be decided.

Svetla Ben-Itzhak is an assistant professor of space and international relations.

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