While war rages on in Europe, the natural gas market is still in a state of crisis due to Russia's invasion ofUkraine.
According to a report from the International Energy Agency, natural gas is no longer the reliable and low-cost energy source it once was as global powers battle an energy crunch.
A fire at a natural gas facility in Texas hobbling exports, US industry output suffering from high energy costs, and European factories shuttering for the same reason have all helped paint a bleak picture for global energy flows.
The IEA notes that the European Union's commitment to speed up the phase-out of Russian imports is transforming Europe's gas market.
The EU's attempt to replace Russian supply with cheaper natural gas is straining the market. Since the beginning of the year, the US has become a large supplier of energy to the world. The report assumed that Russia would curtail flows to more European countries as it did to Bulgaria and Poland.
The US has its own supply chain constraints that make it hard for the US to send supplies to Europe. The plant was shut down for two weeks due to a fire, and won't be back to full capacity until the second half of the year.
According to Sean Morgan, director at Evercore ISI, the U.S. can't fill the void of Russian gas if it were to be shut off completely. The recent Freeport fire took about a third of U.S. exports offline for a long period of time.
Stephen Ellis said that the current trajectory forLNG exports is already operating at full capacity. He said there wasn't much more they could do.
The US industry is feeling the effects of high energy costs. The Kentucky aluminum plant told its employees that it couldn't afford high energy costs. 20% of US supply is accounted for by Century aluminum.
The Italian economy is worried that a cutoff in Russian flows could cause it to contract. Italy's central bank chief said that uncertainty over securing energy supplies and the cost of raw materials would affect growth forecasts.
40% of the EU's natural gas supply last year was supplied by Russia. Natural gas demand was revised by the IEA due to decreased economic activity The agency believes that a steep falloff in demand for gas is necessary.
The report said that more energy transition policies would need to be put in place in mature markets.