Staffing shortages, bad weather, high fuel prices and runaway inflation are some of the challenges airlines face. There is at least one other complicating factor.
The nation's largest carriers are trying to reach a deal with pilots. Two major airlines recently offered to raise pay more than 14 percent in the next year and a half, making them the first airlines to do so.
Money may not be sufficient. The pilot unions want changes that would improve operations and their members' quality of life, as flight disruptions throughout the recovery have left pilots feeling frustrated.
They may be in a good position to get what they want. When airlines encouraged thousands of pilots and other workers to take early retirement offers, a pilot shortage was worsened. With the industry hiring pilots at a record number but struggling to attract, train and retain them, their unions are pushing hard for changes.
The president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association stated that quality of life cannot be addressed with money. You will never be able to pay enough for a lost piano recital or a lost baseball game.
According to Future & Active Pilot Advisors, airlines in the US have hired more than 5,000 pilots this year, more than in any full year since 1990. American, Delta, Southwest and United accounted for most of the hiring. Smaller airlines from which they hire are struggling to find qualified candidates.
Training delays have slowed the process of putting new pilots to work. Delays have hurt efforts to take full advantage of the travel recovery and have contributed to unexpected meltdowns due to bad weather, staff shortages and coronaviruses.
This summer, the industry has scaled back its ambitions. In the month of May, airlines cut 2.5 percent of their domestic flights. In Europe, airlines have been forced to cancel flights and aviation workers have been on strike because of understaffing.
In the United States, airlines have argued that the FAA doesn't have enough air traffic controllers.
Jon Roitman, United's chief operations officer, told staff last week that the aviation system would be challenged this summer and beyond unless the agency addressed its staffing shortage. The F.A.A. said in a statement that the majority of delays and cancelations are not due to staffing at F.A.A.
Disruptions and last-minute schedule changes have frustrated pilots, leading to complaints of being tired. In a full-page newspaper advertisement last month, the leadership of Delta's pilot union, known as the Delta Master Executive Council, said that the airline's pilots will have worked more overtime by this fall than in all of last year.
The chairman of the council said that higher wages were a focus of negotiations with Delta.
As part of a broader package that includes quality-of-life issues, the schedules, and the fact that pilots can show up to work and have their schedule completely messed up, we are going to work on compensation. A pilot can be out for four days if he is extended multiple days.
Delta and Southwest pilots picketed across the country last month to raise awareness of their concerns according to the unions that represent those pilots. They protested outside the New York Stock Exchange for better working conditions. Pensions and protections against overwork were lost in a wave of bankruptcies in the 2000s and the unions are trying to get them back.
Two years ago, pilots at the big airlines were in the middle of contract negotiations. Efforts were stopped by the start of the Pandemic. In order to survive, airlines and unions joined forces to lobby Congress for billions of dollars in aid.
The travel recovery was held back by the availability of coronaviruses vaccines. The contract talks began again this year.
United and its pilots have reached a two-year agreement that will be voted on this week. Within 18 months, pilots would receive a series of raises that would increase their pay by more than 15%. They would get better pay for working overtime and during high demand periods, eight weeks of paid maternity leave, and more protections against overwork.
Last month, American publicized its own offer to pilots, which was broadly similar to the United deal, and would raise base pay nearly 17 percent by the start of 2020. The airline's chief executive said in a message to pilots that a captain of a larger plane could make as much as $425,000 a year. Signing bonuses will be included if pilots agree to it by the end of the month.
The Allied Pilots Association wasn't impressed. Ed Sicher, the president of the union, said in a video message that this was the most competitive market in history for qualified airline pilots. He told the union members to stay focused on getting better rules for scheduling and assignments.
The fix to the company practices that have degraded our quality of life is where the real value in this deal is for our members.
The dynamics of negotiations have changed due to a slowly building pilot shortage. There were a number of factors that contributed to the shortage. The industry has struggled to bring in recruits, who have been attracted to other fields, and discouraged by the cost of training. In retrospect, it appears that airlines pushed too many pilots out during the worst of the Pandemic, with many taking early retirement and other offers.
According to Dan Akins, an aviation economist with Flightpath Economics, company leverage has eroded for skilled positions. Senior people were released during Covid.
Regional airlines have been hardest hit by the shortage as larger carriers lure pilots away. Executives at those airlines say that many who are leaving are experienced or held jobs.
The pilots at those airlines are getting paid more. American recently announced huge pay increases for the pilots who work at the regional airlines it owns, a move that is likely to be repeated throughout the industry. Airline analysts don't think that pilot pay increases at regional and larger carriers will have a big effect on fares. Pilot pay is a large part of airlines operating costs.
The industry's dynamics may soon change. Analysts said that high inflation and fears of an economic decline could cause a decline in travel demand in the months ahead.
According to an analyst at the investment bank, airlines are preparing for a downturn. It is possible that the scheduling concern will sort itself out.
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