A woman has pleaded guilty to charges of transporting drugs into Russia.
It could help speed up negotiations for a prisoner swap.
Insider spoke to several experts about the best way to bring the star player home.
The girl has been in Russian custody for a long time.
Customs agents at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport claimed to have found marijuana in the luggage of the basketball player. She was charged with large-scale transportation of drugs and moved to a Russian jail.
The trial of the two-time Olympic gold medal winner began July 1. She pleaded guilty on Thursday in a bid to speed up the process that would lead to a possible prisoner exchange with Russia.
That's the best way for the Biden administration to get Griner's freedom now that she's admitted to a crime. Since the Russian court system was likely never going to give a fair trial, that had been true from the beginning.
A criminal law expert who served as a federal prosecutor with the US Department of Justice told Insider that a lot of their prosecutions are really persecutions. The Griner case is an example of how flawed Russia's criminal justice system is.
The criminal justice system in the US is flawed but not in Russia.
The US government has intensified its negotiations with the Russians in an effort to bring the seven-time All-Star back to the US. Increased tensions between Russia and the world have limited talks between the two countries.
Between Russia's suspect handling of the case and the country's notoriously harsh 99% conviction rate, there is a general belief that the court proceedings will be a show trial. The only realistic chance for the basketball player to return to the US is a prisoner swap.
According to Dr. Gilbert, these cases are usually resolved with a prisoner swap or with concessions of the hostages.
Gilbert said that the point of a state like Russia arresting an American is to use them as hostages. Between the moment of the arrest and the person's release, they transition from a prisoner to a bargaining chip.
She said that she thinks we are in a good position to negotiate. I think ofGriner as a case of hostage diplomacy.
The Americans and Russians have swapped prisoners before. In April of this year, the Biden administration negotiated the release of a former marine who was arrested for attacking a Russian police officer in exchange for a convicted Russian drug smuggler.
According to Jonathan Franks, a hostage negotiation expert who helped secure Reed's release from Russian prison, the situation for Griner is similar to Reed's.
Franks thinks a prisoner trade is the most likely outcome. The Russians have only requested one outcome in these cases.
"You're really talking about apples and oranges" when it comes to trading for any of the Russian nationals currently held in the US. It's possible that the Phoenix Mercury center didn't commit any offense when he flew into Moscow to compete for a Russian club.
Even though she pleaded guilty to the charges in a July 7 court appearance, it's not clear if she was actually in possession of the drug.
For that reason, the US government is reluctant to swap a low-level drug convict for a high-risk Russian prisoner. That is what the Russians are looking for.
Gilbert said that it's clear that the Russians want to do that. The Russians are trying to trade her for Bout.
Notoriously for supplying rebel groups and terrorist organizations with weapons that fueled bloody wars across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, Bout has been in foreign custody for over a decade. He was arrested in Thailand in 2008 but not for the high-stakes traffickers that inspired several movies and books.
Bout was caught in a drug sting. The arms distributor was lured to engage with a group of people. He offered to sell weapons to the rebels even though he knew they would use them to kill Americans.
Soon after, Bout was arrested in Thailand and extradited to the US, despite protests from the Russian government. Four years after his initial capture, Bout was found guilty of conspiring to provide material support to a terrorist organization, as well as engaging in a plot to kill Americans and US officials.
The judge who sentenced Bout was from the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. The minimum sentence that could be imposed for such crimes was too high according to Scheindlin.
It was part of the contract. She told Insider that she had no choice. I had to give the punishment.
Russian media have linked Bout to possible prisoner swaps with Americans, including Reed. Russian state media outlet Tass wrote in May that American and Russian officials had been talking about a potential swap of prisoners.
There have been misrepresentations surrounding Bout's arrest and conviction. TheMerchant of Death was never convicted of actually supplying anyone with weapons.
The arms were not sold. He was put in that position because of his past and how the agents handled it.
"I'm not saying he's an innocent guy, don't get me wrong, but I think having served 11 years or so is a hefty amount of time in a person's life," she said. I don't think it's a bad idea to trade him. The US is interested in punishing him.
Her proximity to and familiarity with Bout's case should make her stance on the matter very serious.
It's something that should carry a lot of weight when the sentencing judge says that the man has served his time.
She believed that Bout, who she characterized as a cold, cold businessman but not a terrorist, did not pose a threat to the US or its allies. She said that he would be a danger to the community.
Franks told Insider that he didn't think it was a national security issue to release Bout because he wasn't the same person when he was taken into custody.
There is a real American national security interest in keeping Viktor Bout locked up.
She said that the costs of letting him go are real. He's a really bad person. He was a violent criminal who aided and abetted violence all over the world.
Gilbert warned that the release of a high-profile criminal like Bout could encourage Russia and other American adversaries to wrongly hold more civilians in the future.
The White House needs to be cautious of advertising to the rest of the world that if you arrest an American citizen abroad you will get the attention of the Oval Office.
Despite the complexity of the situation, the Biden administration has been steadfast in its commitment to bring the soldier home. Biden and Harris spoke to Cherelle on the phone to assure her that they were working to secure her husband's release.
Even individuals like Franks who have urged the US government to include Bout in a prisoner exchange concede that it would be hard for the administration to execute. Gilbert says that agreeing to a straightforward prisoner swap "presents this false equivalency" that the NBA star has committed the same crime.
One-on-one would be a problem for the government. It might be more acceptable to our government if they threw in another American prisoner.
The former Marine was arrested in Moscow in December of last year on suspicion of being a spy. He was sentenced to 16 years in a Russian prison for espionage and could have served time at a labor camp.
According to the US government, Whelan has been wrongly imprisoned. Gilbert said that the case may make it more difficult to negotiate with the Russians.
She said that it's common for a government to accuse an American of being a spy in order to get the public's attention. It's difficult to think about what kind of deals the United States might be willing to make in order to get someone home.
The cost of bringing him home may go up due to his murky situation. If it secures the safe return of two Americans, then that hefty price is worth it.
Is it possible to send him back tomorrow in exchange for two people? Franks asked rhetorical questions. Twice on Sundays.
The solution is clear-cut according to him. Franks questioned "what the hell is taking so long for the Biden administration to put forth a proposal on the two-for-one trade, which would not be a bad deal for the US to take."
Franks said that this has been a national priority of the Russians for the past two years. He's less valuable as he gets closer to his release date.
With up to 10 years in a Russian prison awaiting the star, supporters have been relentless in their calls for his quick return.
There are a lot of competing interests that make the matter complicated.
It might be a public safety risk to release someone who has been convicted of a crime in the US. Russia wants someone arrested for trumped up charges in Russia to be used as a bargaining chip.
He asked if we negotiate with a country that is holding American citizens in bad faith, where they are clearly doing it to exact some leverage over us. The answer may be a resounding yes.
Gilbert said yes. While she acknowledged that it's not unprecedented and makes a lot of sense for the US to negotiate for both of them at the same time, she noted that the government's strategy behind waiting is probably not foot-dragging.
According to Franks, the administration is probably making sure that they have exhausted every other option before giving up someone like Bout, who is more valuable than any prisoner the US has ever traded.
There are dangers to waiting too long before making a deal. Gilbert said that Delaying an inevitable agreement, especially when the necessary concessions are obvious from the beginning, only harms the prisoners.
She said that it felt like a bad option. The American has had to sit in prison for months, if not years, because of the concession that they've still made.
Lindsay Kagawa Colas, Griner's agent, told Insider that she and those closest to the star want President Biden to do what is necessary to bring her home as soon as possible.
It will be seen as a win for America if she is able to return to her hometown.
Franks concurs.
He said that the country needed something to be happy about. It would be great if the two of them were to come back home.
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