Civilization could collapse within a century if people continued to overextract finite resources, pollute on a massive scale, and balloon the human population. With climate change, water shortages, and microplastics, it sounds like modeling could have been done last week. The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by the Club of Rome.
The book sold millions of copies and was translated into many other languages. The very early computer modeling was done on a punch card machine at MIT. It was making big and important predictions. The old quip says that all models are wrong but some are useful. The model spits out scenarios in which humanity got more sustainable and equitable, and thus flourished, or was allowed to continue plundering the planet.
The simulations show that around the mid-21st century, we would have a scenario of collapse of a number of variables. The whole thing was supposed to be apocalyptic. The message that it was not about that was not brought to the attention of the public. We have the ability to choose, that's what it was about. As humans, we have the ability to decide what we want.
To mark the book's 50 year anniversary, WIRED sat down with the author to talk about how that future is shaping up, what has changed in the half century since Limits, and how humans might correct course. The conversation has been edited to make it clearer.
Can you give a background for people who are not familiar with the report?
The goal was to open the space of possibilities for the future of humankind. Is it possible to expand the concept of human development to the entire planet without negative consequences?
Limits to Growth was a serious attempt to use the best, not only knowledge, but also computer tools, which at the time were quite primitive, to inquire on this big question. It was possible to find a balance between human development and the finite amount of resources on Earth.
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