Australia's minerals exports are set to reach unseen heights for a second year, as a global crunch lifts the value of the nation'scoal and natural gas

The Australian Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources said that income from coal and natural gas will more than make up for the decline in iron-ore earnings. In the year to June 30, the nation will ship A$419 billion of metals and energy commodities, which is 3% more than in the prior period.

In a world without readily available energy supplies -- and increasingly disruptive volatile weather -- the price for thermal coal has rocketed to a record. The department said that the outlook has been compounded by the loss of some Russian supply from world markets.

The headline figure would mark a second year in a row of earnings in excess of A$400 billion if steady volume growth continues.

While near the highest in a decade on the back of fears of shortages from EU sanctions on Russia, oil prices are expected to retreat as the global supply picture gradually outweighs the recovery in demand. As nations scramble for alternatives to Russian gas, spot prices are likely to remain very high for some time, according to the report.

Iron Ore earnings are expected to slip further, despite optimism about improving demand from China, as Beijing doubles down on efforts to boost its economy. Recovering supplies out of Brazil and gains in output elsewhere are expected to cause prices to fall. The steelmaking material's share of total minerals exports will fall to just over a quarter from a third.

Resource and energy export earnings are at risk due to higher global interest rates. It said that income is expected to fall to A$338 billion in 24 years, which would still be the third- highest ever.

Key points from the report:
  • Export earnings for 2021-22 revised down to A$405 billion.
  • Iron ore prices are forecast to average $99 a ton in fiscal 2023, down from $119 a year earlier. Export revenue is seen reaching A$116 billion, down from A$133 billion.
  • Metallurgical coal earnings in fiscal 2023 are expected to hit A$60 billion, with prices expected to fall to an average $343 a ton, before cooling further to $232 in 2023-2024.
  • Thermal coal prices are forecast at an average of $216 a ton in fiscal 2023, down from $241 the previous year.
  • LNG exports are seen rising to A$84 billion in fiscal 2023, before easing to A$68 billion in the following year.
  • Gold exports estimated to climb to A$26 billion in fiscal 2023, though prices are likely to fall in the next two years as the withdrawal of central bank stimulus lifts real bond yields.
  • Base metals boosted by prospect of stronger demand from China and likely loss of some Russian supplies, but prices likely to eventually fall as supply catches up with demand.