The European tournament is about to start. The Women's Euro, a 16-team affair featuring four former champions, one debutant, 30 of the world's 50 best players and, per FIFA, 13 of the world's 21 best teams, begins July 6 in England and will be broadcast live on the Disney Channel.
There are six teams in the field that are favorites to win the tournament. We can learn a lot from the data produced at the club and international level.
Three people are in attack. There is a microwavable offense. White has 50 international goals to her name. Do-it-all, Georgia Stanway is playing in the middle of the field, or at the back of the field. The two centre-backs provide flawless play from their backs. Lucy Bronze is a right back bound for Barcelona.
England have the best of everything. They are great in both attack and defense. White and Scott have both topped 100 caps, as have Bronze and Nikita Parris. Stanway is 23 years old and Toone is 22 years old.
They have more top-50 players than Spain and more than any other team. They've made it to the semifinals in two World Cup and one Euros. They've been nearly perfect, embarrassing minnows and out scoring seven Euro bound opponents by a combined 21-2. They were held in check for most of the first half but slowly wore down their opponents in the second game. They scored three goals after 60 minutes against Belgium and four after 50 minutes against the Dutch.
Spain may be your favorite if club chemistry is important. Nine players from Manchester City were there last year, but their difference-makers are from other English clubs. One can't find a flaw. The team is great at home. If England starts slowly in a big match, the home crowd may become a liability, but they stand out in a field full of outstanding teams. That's right, it's coming home.
I never said this unless it does.
People come together to explain the brilliance of three people.
Vicente del Bosque was fortunate to have the best team in the world in his backyard when he named his Spanish squad for the World Cup. The following season, Barcelona won their third straight LaLiga title. It took a mammoth effort and some unfortunate breaks for them to lose to Inter Milan in the 2010 European Championship semifinals. The total shots over the two legs were 30.
Spain finally got the major-tournament curse off their back, losing to Switzerland in the group stage of the World Cup, thanks to the selection of seven players from Barcelona.
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He is in a similar situation. The manager of Spain's women's team since 2015, he's piloting a team that has only one success on their resume, reaching the semifinals of the Euros in 1997, and he will be leaning heavily on a dominant Barcelona squad.
Over the last two seasons, Barcelona Femeni has played 96 matches, winning 90 and losing four. They have beaten their opponents by a huge margin. They are the dominant force in the sport despite a loss in this year's European Championship. There are 10 members of Barcelona's squad, including captain Irene Paredes, reigning Ballon d'Or Feminin winner Alexia Putellas, and goal scorerMariona Caldentey, who have 12 combined goals and assists in Spain's six World Cup qualification matches thus
Spain has been listed as the favorite in the betting markets despite being eliminated in the round of 16 at the World Cup. The 16 teams have been divided into four betting tiers.
The first tier is tier 1a.
Spain's odds are between 3/1 and 7/2.
England is between 4 and 9/2.
The first tier is tier 1b.
Around 5/1 for France.
Between 5 and 6/1 is the price of the Netherlands.
Germany is between 6 and 7/1.
Sweden is between 6 and 7/1.
The second tier.
Around 14/1.
The odds are 25/1 for the Danes.
Around 25/1 for Italy.
There is a third tier.
Around 50/1 is the price for Switzerland.
Austria is close to 60/1.
The country is around 75/1.
The fourth tier is tier 4.
Around 90/1 is the odds for Portugal.
Around 90/1 is the odds on the island of Iceland.
Around 200/1 for Finns.
Around 250/1 for Northern Ireland.
Spain will have to navigate through a difficult group. Group B has only three teams ranked in the top 15 and two of them have more Euro success than they have. Club continuity and experience will be important if Spain are to live up to their status.
The distribution of the groups is the same as it has been in the past, with two teams residing in each group. It's easy to figure out which group-stage matches will be the most high-profile based on rankings, betting odds and star players. The favorites in Group B are clear and they will go a long way in determining who wins each group.
On Friday, July 8th, Germany vs.Denmark will take place. Germany, the six-time defending champ, was upset by the Danes in the quarter-finals. The Danes scored two goals in the second half to come back from a goal down. Germany will be favored in the first match of the tournament. The Group of Death will be established if the match produces a winner.
The Netherlands and Sweden will play on July 9. The reigning Olympic silver medal winning team will play the defending Euro champ. The teams will advance regardless of who wins, as they are both stronger than the other Group C teams. The winner could avoid France in the quarterfinals.
France and Italy will play on July 10. Only one team with better than 15/1 odds to win the tournament is in France's group. Italy still has Barbara Bonansea and eight teammates from a team that won their fifth straight title this season and excelled in the playoffs, beating Lyon 4-3 in the quarterfinals.
England and Norway will play on July 11. The English squad might be the favorite if Spain aren't the favorite. There have been a lot of romps over minnows in the past 13 matches, but the Lionesses have also beaten the Netherlands and Germany and drawn with both.
They will face a Norway squad that might not have the depth it once had but still has two of the world's 10 best players. There is a big fight going on.
Germany and Spain will play on Tuesday, July 12. The last of the top 10 vs. top 10 battles will have a different feel if Germany fails to beat the Danes. On July 16th, Spain will faceDenmark. This will be the first significant test for the favorites.
Group A has two teams that are heavily favored to advance and Group C has two teams that are solid favorites to advance.
France are the favorites in Group D but second place could be up for grabs. Italy has the best odds of progressing, but they are 14th in the current rankings, and 17th and 19th in the world. Belgium has a trio of major-club veteran forwards, including Tine De Caigny, and also has a trio of stalwart defenders in the form of Perla Viggosdottir.
Group D has the clearest path to the knockout rounds, and every match in the group has an interesting stake.
We don't know a lot about France until the knockout rounds.
It's hard to get a good idea of a team's form at the international level. While most teams in the Euro field have played around 12 matches in the past year, a lot of those came against low level teams in World Cup qualification, and the players a country will be counting on in the Euros may not have been. In November, England put up double-digit goals on North Macedonia and Luxembourg, as well as beating Latvia. What an impressive thing to do? Certainly, but North Macedonia is ranked 133rd in the world.
We can learn a lot if we only look at like- versus-like matches.
Over the last year, the Netherlands have played five top 10 opponents. They have pulled three points and a minus 6 goal differential. They lost to England and France by a combined 8-2 after drawing with the US at the Olympics.
England, Sweden, and France have averaged at least 2.0 points per game against top 10 opponents over the last year.
The two-points-per-game range has been expanded to include top 25 opponents France, England, Sweden, Spain, Italy, and Norway.
The Tournoi de France was won by France. They've got a perfect record over the past year, but they've only played two high ranked opponents. Only four teams have played fewer than six matches against the top 25.
It's difficult to say if this matters, but France isn't relying so much on league powerhouses like Lyon and Paris Saint-Germain. There are five players from each club in the French squad, but also four who play for Bordeaux, two who play in Spain, two who play in England and one who plays in Italy. The team could have used more challenges.
One can only worry about a team that uses key pieces of Lyon's midfield, and one of the most intimidating defenders in the league.
It's difficult to separate the top teams. France might be held back by chemistry.
It's not easy to love the Netherlands' chances. In terms of points per game, the defending Euro champion and World Cup runner-up are in second place in their World Cup qualification group, thanks to two draws against the Czech Republic. They weren't able to keep up against France and England.
The loss to England last week was particularly disappointing. The Dutch took an early lead, but Bronze came back and the Dutch lost their cool in the second half, allowing four goals in the final 40 minutes.
If you look at what Dutch players are doing on the club level, you can see that they have a chance in England. They have some of the most high-end talent on the planet in the likes of Miedema and Martens. Their roster includes players who excelled in the Vrouwen Eredivisie. Romee Leuchter had 25 goals with five assists, Victoria Pelova had six and nine, and the other two had four and 10.
They have as much offensive power as anyone in the field, even though they aren't as proven in defense.
Germany was an early supporter of women's soccer at both the club and international level. German teams won nine of the first 14 women's cups, with four other finals appearances. Between 1989 and 2013, the national team won eight of nine Euros and reached the finals of the 1995 World Cup.
Since Lyon took over women's club soccer, German teams have lost in the Euro and World Cup quarterfinals, and only three times have they won the European Championship. In February, Germany lost to Canada and England in the Arnold Clark Cup and then lost to Serbia in the World Cup qualification match. They haven't established a convincing level in a long time.
Like the Netherlands, their club level success suggests elite talent. In the second leg of the semifinals, they beat Barcelona, one of only two clubs to beat them this season. Cologne's Laura Freigang scored 12 goals in 23 matches and had 12 more league assists. You've got a formidable attack with the addition of Lyon and PSG. Their defense is less proven than the Dutch one.
They beat Switzerland in a tune-up game on June 24 and got a hat trick from Buhl. If they are confident, a ninth Euro title isn't out of the question.
Sweden is either the fifth or sixth betting favorite. They have one of the most feared defenders in the world, as well as top class attackers, and one of the most feared attacking defenders. They have a good record.
Sweden beat Canada, Germany, and England on the way to third place at the World Cup, after beating the U.S. on the way to the Olympic finals. Four of the last six Euros they have reached the semis. They've only lost one game over the past year or so, and that was in the gold medal match of the Olympics.
Is this the year that Sweden wins?
They attacked and defended at this point, something that made them stand out in the Olympics. They created opportunities from a high press and generated scoring chances for both Blackstenius and Hurtig, and they offered opponents almost no high-quality shots in return.
If Sweden can get past the Netherlands in the group stage, they could face the weakest team in the quarterfinals, since they have seen as much proof of concept as any other team. The stars have aligned in a way that makes sense.
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