The past 10,000 years have seen human societies become more complex. A team of scientists led by Peter Turchin from the Complexity Science Hub Vienna set out to test various theories on what drove this process. The best explanation for the evolution of socio-cultural complexity is a combination of increased agricultural productivity and the invention of military technologies, most notably the invention of iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE. The study was published in the journal.
There are many theories that need testing.
Peter Turchin points out that "countless explanations have been offered to explain the Holocene transformation." The transition to agriculture was needed for the rise of complex societies according to some theorists. Conflict theories, class struggle, and the threat from external warfare are some of the theories focused on.
Turchin says that all of the theories could cite historical examples seemingly supporting their mechanisms, but none have ever proved more convincing than the others. He and other members of the Seshat: Global History Databank project used the tried-and-true scientific method to determine what each body of theory proposes as the key factors driving the rise of complexity. Many long-standing and influential theories are not supported by data.
Human history is driven by plow and sword.
The framework of cultural evolution is offered by the best explanation. The conflict between groups over territory and resources puts a lot of pressure on society. It favored societies that were larger, more populous and able to mobilize more people for common projects like defense and maintaining public infrastructure. For the first time a single, coherent framework has been provided and demonstrated with the historical record, Turchin said.
After the invention of key technologies like bronze and later iron smelting or cavalry warfare, the scale of the largest societies rose before leveling off to a relatively stable size. After another breakthrough was achieved, new innovations and cultural adaptation continued to build, propelling societies to new heights before stabilizing again.
Big data shows important patterns.
Harvey Whitehouse is one of the founding directors of Seshat and is one of the authors of the paper. The study used more than a hundred variables and looked at 373 societies that flourished between 9 600 BCE and 1900CE. We can place theories of world history head-to-head and see which one wins.
The scientists believe this study to be a breakthrough in understanding how human societies have evolved over time. The team will use similar methods in the future to test the ideas that have been proposed in other areas of research, such as the causes of societal collapse or the role of religious ideology in cultural evolution.
Turchin says the ultimate goal is to put those influential ideas that don't bear out against the empirical record to bed.
More information: Peter Turchin et al, Disentangling the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity: A Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses, Science Advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn3517. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517 Journal information: Science Advances
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