Moscow and NATO could be about to clash over Russia’s European exclave Kaliningrad

A sign reading ‘Kaliningrad’ stands atop the main city’s south railway station. Kaliningrad is a small Russian exclave located on the Baltic Sea and sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. It has become the center of a spat between Russia and NATO-member Lithuania.

A new front in tensions between Russia and NATO has opened up after one of the Western military alliance's members banned the transit of some goods from Russia to its exclave on the Baltic Sea.

NATO members have reiterated their support for the country while Russia has vowed to retaliate over what it described as the "hostile actions" ofLithuania.

There is a brief guide to what is going on and why it matters.

The transit of goods from Russia to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad will be banned byLithuania.

The blockade would apply to all EU-sanctioned goods coming from the mainland via rail, effectively blocking the transit of metals, coal, construction materials and high- technology products to the Russian sea port.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, was consulted before the decision was made to enforce the sanctions against Russia.

Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement Tuesday saying that if in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory were to happen, it would be an "unprecedented" and "hostile" act.

The exclave of Kaliningrad is located on the Baltic Sea. It is home to almost half a million people and has 86 square miles.

After being part of the German empire, it was seized by the Soviets in 1945 and has remained in Russian control ever since. The headquarters of the Baltic Fleet are located in the Kaliningrad Oblast.

60 warships and 10,000 military personnel participated in 10 days of military drills in the Baltic Sea in June.

A disused border crossing point to Russia is seen on April 15, 2022 in Nida, Lithuania. Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, on the shore of the Baltic Sea, is sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland and is the Baltic coasts most strategic transport and trade port.

panic buying in Kaliningrad was caused byLithuania's ban on the transit of some EU-sanctioned goods. Russia will increase the number of cargo ships transiting goods from St.Petersburg to the exclave over the rest of the year, according to the region's governor.

It is not clear how Moscow will respond to the move.

On Monday, the president's press secretary called the move illegal and said it was unprecedented.

He said that the situation was more serious and needed a serious in-depth analysis.

The transit of passengers and non-sanctioned goods to and from the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania continues unimpeded, according to a statement from the Foreign Ministry ofLithuania.

It said thatLithuania has not imposed any restrictions on the transit and that it is implementing EU sanctions.

Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, was worried about what form the retaliation would take while he defended Vilnius' position. He insisted that there was no blockade, even though he was worried about the Russian reprisals.

He said that the reports in Russia thatLithuania was implementing its own sanctions was a lie.

According to Timothy Ash, senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, it is a strategic imperative for Russia to defend and sustain Kaliningrad.

The only question is what Russia will do with the situation.

If a land attack was to drive a corridor throughLithuania it would cause NATO to defend the country. That is a war with NATO. Is it possible for Putin to afford that when he is struggling to deliver? He would have to launch an assault through the country to stretch his supply lines and split his forces.

It would be seen as a huge escalation by both NATO and the EU if Russia were to use its naval assets in the Baltic Sea to enforce a blockade on Lithuania.

As a result of the war in Ukraine, tensions between Russia and NATO have been heightened, and the move byLithuania could put a NATO country in line for a direct confrontation with Russia.

Collective defense is a pillar of the NATO alliance and means that if one member is attacked, it is considered an attack on the entire group with all members committed to protecting each other.

NATO has sent a wide range of military equipment and weaponry as well as humanitarian aid to help fight the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it won't send troops into the country as it doesn't want a confrontation with Russia.

Russia knows that any attack onLithuania will be seen as an attack on all NATO members.

Vehicles of the German armed forces Bundeswehr from the Griffin barracks arrive at the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Battalion in Lithuania in Rukla, Lithuania on February 17, 2022.

The NATO allies said they would stand by the country.

Ned Price, a spokesman for the US State Department, said during a daily press briefing that the US stands by its commitments to the NATO alliance.

We stand by our NATO allies and we stand byLithuania.