The future of the world's oceans looks bleak due to climate change. Climate models show that the areas that used to be covered in ice year-round will be ice-free in as little as 20 years. Scientists say that the changing climate will endanger many species.
There is a critical consequence of melting ice in the north. The Northern Sea Route is controlled by the Russian government.
A pair of climate scientists at Brown University collaborated with a legal scholar at the University of Maine School of Law to predict how the melting of the ice in the ocean will affect shipping routes. They projected that by 2065, the Arctic's navigability will increase so much that it could yield new trade routes in international waters, as well as decreasing the shipping industry's carbon footprint.
The study was published in June.
According to the study's lead author and a professor of Earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Brown, there's no scenario in which melting ice in theArctic is good news. The unfortunate reality is that the ice is already retreating, these routes are opening up, and we need to start thinking about the legal, environmental and geopolitical implications.
Lynch and Li collaborated to model four navigation scenarios based on four likely outcomes of global actions to stop climate change. Climate change will likely open up several new routes through international waters by the middle of this century if global leaders fail to control warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 43 years.
The changes could have major implications for world trade and global politics according to Charles Norchi, director of the Center for Ocean and Coastal Law at Maine Law.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has given coastal states greater authority over shipping routes. As long as the area remains ice-covered for the majority of the year, countries with coastlines in the area have the ability to regulate maritime traffic.
Norchi said that for a long time Russia has used the article for its own purposes. All vessels that pass through the Northern Sea Route must be piloted by Russians. TrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkiaTrademarkia The route's heavy regulations and high costs are one of the reasons why major shipping companies choose to use the Panama and Suez canals.
As the ice near Russia's northern coast begins to melt, so will the country's hold on shipping through the ocean.
Norchi said that the Russians will try to back up their might by continuing to invoke the article. If there isn't an ice covered area for most of the year, the international community will challenge them. Shipping will move out of Russian territorial waters and into international waters. Climate change and shipping economics will drive the outcome if that happens.
According to Lynch, previous studies have shown that the routes in the north are up to 50% shorter than the canal routes in the south. Shipping companies could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by about 25% if the international waters of the Arctic warm up.
When the Ever Given ship was stranded in the Suez Canal, blocking an important shipping route for several weeks, it's a good time to think about the newArctic routes. New routes that are not canals give the global shipping infrastructure a lot more resilience.
Given how long it will take for international laws to be established, it's better to ask questions now. She said that it took 10 years for world governments to negotiate the convention on the law of the sea. Lynch wants world leaders to make informed decisions about protecting the Earth's climate from future harm by starting the discussion on the trade future of the Arctic.
Lynch said that "flagging these coming changes now could help prevent them from emerging as a crisis that has to be resolved rapidly." It is better to craft international agreements with some thought and consideration.
More information: The interaction of ice and law in Arctic marine accessibility, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202720119 Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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