There's a nearly 75% chance the Fed triggers a US recession within 2 years, which could cost Biden re-election, new study says

The odds that the US economy will fall into a recession by early 2024 have soared to nearly three-in-four as the Fed tries to cool down inflation.

It's possible that it will happen before Biden's re- election bid, setting him up to join the likes of Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush who were ousted after a single term.

The Fed's policy maneuvers create a 70% chance of a downturn by the first quarter of 2019.

The models predicted a nearly zero chance of a downturn by February and the probability was less than 20% in March.

The Federal Reserve raised benchmark rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, making it the largest hike in two decades. The previous increases were 50 points and 25 points.

Powell said that increases of three-quarter points size won't be common and that the next rate hike will probably be 50 or 75 basis points.

The central bank has said that a recession is unlikely. The White House pointed out that different economic models produce different forecasts.

Americans are more pessimistic about the economy than they were during the Great Recession.

The University of Michigan's sentiment index dropped to 50.2 this month, its lowest mark in history. Inflation was the main driver of the negative outlook.

According to the University of Michigan survey, his approval rating hit a low of 38.9 in June.

The president said in May that a recession is not a given.

"We have problems that the rest of the world has, but less consequential than the rest of the world because of our internal growth and strength," Biden said at a press conference in Tokyo. This is going to take a long time. It's going to take a while.