Biden's optimism collides with mounting political challenges

The Democrats will hold onto the House after the election. They will pick up as many as four seats in the Senate and overcome internal dissent that has hampered their agenda.

As the challenges facing President Joe Biden intensify, his predictions of a rosy political future for the Democratic Party are getting bolder. The assessments, delivered in speeches, fundraises and conversations with friends and allies, seem at odds with a country that he acknowledged this past week was "really, really down."

Biden's optimism is in line with a sense of optimism that has coursed through his career and was at the center of his 2020 presidential campaign, which he said was built around restoring the "soul of America." Biden told The Associated Press that part of his job as president is to be confident.

While presidents often try to emphasize the positive, there is a risk in this moment that Biden contributes to a dichotomy between Washington and people who are facing real and growing economic pain.

Biden's political advisers are more bullish about the party's chances than the president. Many of the party's leading candidates in down-ballot races and contests for governor will be defeated in an election Biden himself can do, according to interviews with a half-dozen people in and close to the White House.

Some in the party are concerned that the White House has not grasped how bad the election will be for Democrats.

Will Marshall, president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, doesn't expect any president to say "We're going to lose the next election" Marshall said that a sober sense of, "Look, we're probably in for a rough night in November, and our strategy should be to remind the country what's at stake."

The problem is not being ignored.

The political team for Biden's 2020 campaign is run from the West Wing by Jen O'Malley Dillon, who now serves as one of the vice president's chiefs of staff.

The strategy of the White House, the Democratic National Committee, and an array of outside party groups is coordinated by O'Brien. The man who co-chaired Biden's 2020 campaign left for a job with the DNC in April.

You can't govern if you can't win. It is being treated with a sense of urgentness.

The veteran strategist is coming back to the White house. Biden turned to her during an especially low political moment in February 2020, giving her broad control of his then-cash strapped presidential campaign as it appeared to be on the verge of collapse after a disastrous fourth place showing in the Iowa caucus.

In the past, the White House had hoped that voters could be persuaded of Biden's accomplishments and reverse their negative view of the country. To cast Republicans and their policies as obstacles to addressing these issues, they have pushed the president to be more open about his own frustration with inflation.

Biden has betrayed few concerns about his party's fortunes in the public eye.

The president told a group of donors in Maryland that there are at least four seats that are up for grabs. We're going to keep the house.

Potential longer shots in North Carolina or Florida could be represented by No. 4. The president is trying to get his base to believe in him. One laughed when asked if Democrats could win four Senate seats.

It is possible that the party's chances of retaining House control will be worse.

Since last fall, Biden has traveled more to promote a $1 trillion public works package that became law in November. The president declared his name to be Joe Biden during a visit to Iowa. I work for a female politician.

If Biden doesn't run for reelection, the last challenger eliminated in 2020 is not ruling out a run. There are still questions about whether Biden will run, even though the White House is getting ready for the elections.

The question of Biden's appeal could be more difficult. He won the state of Virginia in 2020. It's possible that the 16 governorships Democrats are defending this fall will be bad omens.

The Democratic candidate for governor in Georgia said there are always going to be national challenges. She was willing to campaign with Biden or members of his administration.

Democrat Beto O'Rourke, who is running for governor in Texas, told reporters, "I'm not interested in any national politician coming to Texas to help decide the outcome of this race."

Last month, Biden's approval rating fell to a new low. The percentage of people who think the country is headed in the right direction has gone down. The president's approval rating among Democrats fell from a year ago.