There are two kinds of stories here. The victories pulled from the jaws of defeat are first. When a historian shows up to give a talk on one topic, only to discover her hosts were expecting another, like the time she showed up to give a talk on one topic, only to discover her hosts were expecting another, like the time she showed up to give a talk on one topic She panicked and wrote an hour long show in 10 minutes. A lady came up to me at the end and said how great my delivery was.
The kind that ends inignominy is the other kind of winging it story. When asked about stop-and- search powers, the safeguarding minister tied herself in knots. The journalist did not listen to her album. Nadine Dorries claimed that Channel 5 had been privatised.
Worse examples can be found. When she was a journalist, Sarah Dempster wrote a piece without going to a concert because she was unwell. After publication, the paper called to inform me that the gig had been canceled. She said she was fired. There was a piece written by the Sun. The headline was 'MEAT OAF'
How do people dare to wing it? Since reading a profile in the New York Times of Musk, I have been pondering this. To a degree unseen in any other mogul, theentrepreneur acts on whim, fancy and the certainty that he is 100% right, it said.
I don't know what the appeal is of this strategy. Is it a legit way of doing business? Can Musk, the CEO of a company with a market cap of $570 billion, and the founder of a company that sent humans into space, really be doing what they're saying?
Some people are not sure. Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is the author of Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? Musk uses his arrogant self-presentation to his advantage and is too smart to operate under that principle. A big part of Musk's success is attributed to his brand. He says that the recent film shows Musk as humble and self-critical.
It is an idea shared by a visiting professor at the Bayes Business School at City, University of London. He doesn't draw on data, it's a leading-edge thing he's engaged in When you promote yourself as a sort of visionary or hero, you want to make sure that your insights are not just a bunch of data.
When you promote yourself as a visionary, you want to try to claim that there’s something special about your insights
The implication is that Musk is like the school kids who claim not to have done a single revision and then ace the exam. Chamorro-Premuzic says that there is something innately appealing about a Steve Jobs, not a Zhou Qunfei.
Chamorro-Premuzic says there is something romantic about the idea of mavericks who don't need to work very hard. By definition, talent is more of an extraordinary gift and we celebrate that more.
Eve Poole is a leader. She doesn't want it to feel like hard work. They don't want to say that they slaved in front of a spreadsheet for 20 hours before making a decision.
Boris Johnson seems to have a penchant for winging it. He said that he got the big calls right because he was uniquely gifted and insightful. It's not true.
Johnson doesn't have good lines off the cuff and his self-presentation as a charismatic figure with flair is particularly interesting. Recent prime minister's questions performances or his testy, defensive responses in more probing interviews are some of the things you can see.
Is there a basis for the idea that a person's gut feeling is better than a person's decision-making? Gary Klein's research on intuition in decision-making is still cited 35 years later. He said they weren't looking for intuition. Firefighters might be evaluating two options when they decide how to fight a fire. They said that they didn't compare any options. They said that they didn't make any decisions. Klein didn't understand how firefighters could only take one course of action at a time.
There was a different picture revealed. Klein explained that the firefighters used fires they'd seen to classify the situation. The firefighters would model how a course of action would run and adjust their model accordingly. Klein said it was a blend of intuition and analysis. The process was done quickly. Most decisions were made in a short period of time.
What looks like winging it can actually be instinctive decision-making backed up by years of experience, according to the author. She says that leaders who trust that are very good.
One of the areas where people are less comfortable with the idea of winging it is healthcare. According to Klein's research, medical professionals use intuitive decision-making and gut feeling as a matter of course, even if they don't want to end up in the hands of a seat-of-the-pants neurosurgeon.
A less experienced nurse who had been conscientiously tracking all the infant's vitals had failed to spot it when an experienced nurse walked past the incubator and got a gut feeling. An experienced physician sees a bunch of things. Someone who was just a resident called the doctor when they had a tough case. From the door, the physician just looked at the patient and said: "Ah, congestive heart failure."
Experiences can feed intuition. She has been researching what humans still have to offer in a world in which artificial intelligence is more powerful than ever. She says that we all know that we have had those feelings and that we tend to discount them. The collective historical unconscious is trying to keep us safe. She says there are two strands, one of which is your own, desperately hard-earned gut feeling, laid down in templates of data and knowledge.
It can, but it isn't all the time. Intuition is not always right. Klein describes it as a data point that needs to be taken into account. Recruitment is one area in which intuition gives bad results. Chamorro-Premuzic says that interview processes increase and reinforce biases. He says that in an interview situation, hiring managers think they have an ability to see through candidates and to understand whether they are competent. The main way to evaluate culture fit is whether someone feels right in a job interview. Managers will gravitate towards candidates who are similar to them, even if they are open minded.
It appeals to people who don’t feel anything any more – it gives them a massive adrenaline rush
People tend to make up their minds in the first 60 or 90 seconds. This is not a good way to recognize patterns. Decision-makers think someone reminds them of themselves when they see him. I was similar to him.
There is Donald Trump here. Trump said his gut tells him more than anyone else's brain can. Some people think intuition is innate ability, which I don't think it is, and it's based on experience. Intuition is a general skill that can be used in a lot of different situations. I don't believe that's true He pointed out that having good intuition in an area where you have professional experience does not mean you have a skill that can be transferred.
Talking to people who admit to winging it shows that they mean the "good" kind of intuition: calling on a wealth of relevant experience and using it in defined circumstances. There is an element of performance where the secret ingredient can be found.
She loves to wing it in sales presentations. I get a new angle when I wing it. I think that I am winging things I already know. Kathy, a senior financial services strategist, says, "If it's something I don't know at all, I won't wing it, but in my area of expertise I'm the queen of prep."
The good wingers are the lazy, grandiose blaggers and the bullshitters, who are often in positions of power. A lot of men do that. It appeals to people who don't feel anything anymore, because it's all so boring. It makes them feel very strong and victorious. Chamorro-Premuzic says that the sense of Teflon-style immunity betrays them eventually. You get caught out. It's the spin of the wheel and that's why I don't like it.
We still like them and buy their products. The lack of followership maturity varies from culture to culture. He says that if you work hard and succeed you will be a loser. We should worship you if you lie to us. There are cultures that value hard work and knowledge and there are cultures that don't.
He says that a country that wants to be entertained is likely to apply low standards for leadership. They celebrate anyone who challenges the establishment. They can channel the anger that people have when they disrespect the rules. We assume that the emperor is fully clothed because of the blagging and bluster. If it is true, what do we do?
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