Russian forces are slowly but surely making progress in the eastern Donbas region and there are growing concerns in the west that Russia could seize it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not given up on his goal of conquering Ukraine as a whole despite the fact that the Russian military has shifted its focus to the Donbas.
They have the idea of taking over the entire country. In the first weeks of the war, they showed this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this was their goal.
Insider was told that they are skeptical that Russian forces have the troops and weaponry after suffering heavy losses to mount an effective assault on the Ukrainian capital.
Steven Pifer, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, told Insider that Putin might return to the goal of recovering Russian lands if Russia takes the Donbas. Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, saying that the invasion of Ukraine was a case of Russia moving to regain lands that have historic ties.
It's a different question whether everyone in Moscow shares that ambition. Does the Russian military have the ability to do that kind of operation? Pifer said that there are a lot of Russian soldiers who are 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609- 888-609-
The Pentagon has also offered an assessment. Colin Kahl, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, said on Tuesday that he does not think the Russians have the capacity to achieve grandiose objectives.
A loss rate of 200 to 500 troops dying every day for the last week is unsustainable for a military estimated to have had 250,000 troops prior to the war's outbreak.
Rita Konaev, deputy director of analysis at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology and an expert on the Russian military, told Insider that if Russia seizes the Donbas she doesn't see a campaign to retake Kyiv again.
She said that this was contingent on the Russians learning from their past failures in the war.
The best scenario for Russia would be for them to take back the Donbas. That depends on whatUkraine is willing to accept. Konaev isn't certain that the political tide has turned against expelling Russian troops from Ukraine altogether.
The province of Luhansk is part of the Donbas. The fighting between the Ukrainian forces and the Kremlin-backed rebels has been going on for more than three years. The pro-Russian rebels already had control of a third of the Donbas when Russia launched its invasion.
Russian forces appear to be on the verge of taking a key city in the Luhansk region. Zelenskyy believes that the fate of east Ukraine could be decided by the battle for the city of Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian forces are suffering up to 1000 casualties per day in the fighting. As the Russian onslaught rages on, the Ukrainians are pleading with the West to send more weapons.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said on Wednesday that the numbers favored the Russians.
Milley said that a Ukrainian defeat in the region wouldn't be an "inevitability." With Ukrainian forces in a dire position, President Joe Biden announced another $1 billion in military aid to the country on Wednesday.
Pifer warned against fatalistic conclusions despite the tough circumstances.
"Wherever people were swinging too far into 'Ukraine can win' in the first month and a half, maybe people may be swinging a little bit too far into 'Russia is now going to win,'" Pifer said.
According to Pifer, the conflict is likely to turn into a war of attrition that could stretch out into the next decade.
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