Putin Has Reason to Slow-Walk a Ukraine Grain Deal

Senior European officials don't think that Russia will be willing to ease global food pressures by agreeing to let Ukraine resume crucial grain exports.

Government and intelligence officials say United Nations-facilitated negotiations with Moscow and Kyiv are not going well. They didn't want to be identified talking about sensitive matters. One person familiar with the discussions said how goods can move safety within and from Ukranian is one of many unresolved issues.

The Kremlin wanted to use the threat of global hunger as a bargaining chip in any future peace talks, according to one of the people. The US has not imposed sanctions on Russian agricultural products in response to the war, and there is no correlation between the two.

Millions of people have fled to Europe because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has also triggered what many policy-makers warn could be a spiraling food crisis around the world by cutting off shipments of Ukrainian agricultural commodities at a time when prices are already rising and shortages are being felt as far away as North Africa and Asia.

With the Black Sea ports scattered with mines and Russia effectively blocking shipping in the area, countries from Turkey to the US have been grappling for a solution. Grain, oil and other commodities are stuck. Moscow was accused of stealing its grain stores and moving them into Russia and of targeting storage facilities with missiles. Russia doesn't use food as a weapon.

The US is urging Russia to make deals to open up the grain trade.

A person familiar with the conversations says there is a chance that Ukrainian and Russian ministers could meet in Istanbul this week. The UN-facilitated talks will try to reach an agreement this month to move 2 million metric tons of grain a month from July.

The Russian and Turkish foreign ministers met in Ankara. No progress was made in the discussions that Ukraine did not attend.

Russia wants to remove mines from ports in order to protect them from Russian attacks. Russia insisted before the war that it had no plans to invade, but that hasn't convinced Kyiv that it won't strike.

There is a race to get grain out of Ukranian from alternative routes before the next harvest. The amount of grain waiting to be shipped out of Ukraine could reach 75 million tons in the autumn, according to the president.

Even if it was agreed to, de-mining would take months. One of the people said that grain could be moved out of three ports in the Black Sea through safe lanes. It is not clear how that could avoid the need to remove mines from ports for ships to dock and pick up grain. There is no need to clear all the mines.

There is a discussion among the EU and other nations about the use of harbors in Poland and Romania, as well as the possibility of rail transport links to ports further away in the Netherlands, Germany and the Adriatic. The US is building temporary silos in Poland and other places along the Ukrainian border to send grain out on trains, according to President Joe Biden.

Ukranian grain is at risk of being stopped due to mines, red tape and Russia.

The overland routes are likely to be much slower and have their own logistical challenges. The person said that it wouldn't replace exports from ports in the Black Sea.

A lack of trust is the biggest issue, according to an official. Putin has tied the lifting of sanctions on Russia to the freeing of Ukrainian grain shipments, and his officials continue to perpetuate the idea that food shortages are a result of those sanctions.

A senior European intelligence officer said that Moscow was spreading the same message in the Middle East and Africa.

US and European sanctions do not affect Russia's agricultural sector. Moscow can export itsfertilizer to third countries even if the EU restricts it. With the US government quietly encouraging companies to buy and carry more of it, some companies are shying away from trade in Russianfertilizer.

War damage has taken a toll on the Ukrainian farm industry.

One person said that any deal to ship by sea will need assurances that Russia won't target Ukraine's storage facilities.

UN-flagged inspectors are seen as a possibility if the two sides agree to inspect. The person said that Russia wanted to control the checks.

The need to procure large ships is one of the operational challenges.

Officials are equally pessimistic about the chances of an agreement that would see Ukrainian grain moved out via neighboring Belarus, a country that has been used by Russia as a staging point.

A senior intelligence officer said it was likely that Russia was coordinating with another country. The Ukrainian government has ruled out using the country as a conduit.

Daryna Krasnolutska assisted.