UK at start of new Covid wave driven by BA.4 and BA.5, new data suggests

Think again if you thought Covid-19 was gone. There are early signs that the UK may be at the start of a new wave of Covid infections driven by BA.4 and BA.5.

What can we expect in the next few months?

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, there was an increase in the number of Covid cases in England and Northern Ireland between June and July. In Wales and Scotland, the trends were not clear.

The UK Health Security Agency is watching the USA's dominant Covid strain, which is a child of BA. 5.1.

The UK became the first country in the world to designate BA.4 and BA.5 as variant of concern on May 20.

About one in 70 people in England were estimated to have Covid in the week leading up to June 2.

The second wave of Omicron infections in South Africa began at the start of May and appear to have stopped. South Africa wasn't hit by the highly transmissible BA.2 variant in the same way the UK was, and scientists had hoped that high levels of immunity from recent infection with BA.2 and booster vaccines would prevent these newer versions from gaining a significant foothold here.

With immunity from third vaccine doses waning in most population groups, and only the over-75s, and extremely vulnerable groups, this cannot be guaranteed. It's not clear if recent infections with the BA.1 or BA.2 Omicron variant will protect against re-infection.

According to research published in Science on Tuesday, natural infections with Omicron don't produce a strong immune response, even if scientists look at T cells, meaning that people who have already recovered from an Omicron infections can be re-invade. Prof Danny Altmann and his team at Imperial College London may have found a way to explain why infections have remained high in countries such as the UK.

According to preliminary data, the BA.4 and BA.5 may have evolved to re-favour infections of lung cells, rather than upper respiratory tract tissue. Infections tend to be milder in most people because of the Omicron variant's tendency to prefer infecting non-lung tissue.

The things seem to be reverting back to the more dangerous form of infections, so going lower down in the lung.

Experiments show that BA.4 and BA.5 are more efficient in replicating in human lung cells than in hamsters.

The variant that appears to have a higher reproduction number than BA.2 appears to be resistant to infections caused by Omicron immunity.

The risk of Omicron variant BA.4 and BA.5 to global health is more than that of original BA.2.

The idea that the virus is going to turn into a cold was paid for. There isn't any pressure on it to do that.

The rise of BA.4/5 doesn't mean we're back to square one. The UK's population is highlyvaccinated and previous infections with other variant will count for something. The people who haven't beenvaccinated are still vulnerable.

The director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University pointed out that the BA.4/5 wave has been less deadly than previous waves. It's possible that the hospital Covid wards were mostly empty when it started, but it's also possible that it was due to high levels of population immunity.

There are also hospitalisations and deaths. There are more long covid cases in the UK. 2 million people in the UK are thought to be living with Covid, the highest figure since official surveys began.

There have been a lot of cases and deaths in Portugal.

What should be done about it? If previous experience is to be believed, boosters are likely to restore immune protection against hospitalisation and death. A fourth dose is expected to be given to frontline health and social care workers, care home residents and staff.

There will be a small blip in the UK's transition out of the Covid crisis. Smooth sailing is not always guaranteed.