‘Frozen conflict’: Ukraine war could last 10 years or more if Russian forces aren’t pushed back

Ukrainian troop members repair an army’s Main Battle Tank (MBT) in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7, 2022.

Analysts fear that Ukrainian fighters are losing the upper hand in the conflict and that the eastern region could be taken over by Russia.

The director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies is worried about it. There are big risks that Ukraine will lose land.

There has been a lot of change since Russia invaded Ukraine. After initially attacking the country from the south, east and north, Russia realized it had bitten off more than it could chew and shifted its focus to easternUkraine.

The move away from Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv, as well as other strategic failures by Russia's forces during the initial phase of the conflict, gaveUkraine's leadership and fighters a big boost.

Russia seems to be throwing everything it can at seizing the entire Donbas region as it aims to cement a land corridor from Russia to the Black Sea, where it seeks to take control of Ukraine's ports and trade.

The Luhansk province is in the easternmost part of the country.

Ukrainian troop members move towards the front line with an army’s Main Battle Tank (MBT) in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7, 2022.

The last city held by Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk province has been hit by Russian shelling for several weeks now.

The governor of Luhansk warned on Monday that Russia had a majority of the city and that fighting was still going on. After a period of respite, Russian forces seem to have renewed their assaults on the city of Kharkiv.

There are concerns that the country's forces could be starting to lose steam in the fight against Russia.

Smoke and dirt rise from shelling in the city of Severodonetsk during fight between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7, 2022.

Analysts warn that the situation now appears to have changed in Russia's favor, and that it could mark another turning point for the country, like the loss of Mariupol.

Andrius Tursa, advisor to central and eastern Europe at Teneo Intelligence, said in a note last week that Russia is makingIncremental Advances and is now reportedly controlling most of the strategic city of the same name.

Russia needs the capture of this city to gain full control of the Luhansk administrative region. He said that if the Russian offensive succeeds, it would shift focus to the eastern part of the country.

Tursa said that the situation in Donbas is indicative of Russia's military superiority. Russia seems to have improved its strategic skills.

The Russian side appears to have improved its operational and logistical activities compared to the first phase of the offensive. Slow and insufficient weapons supplies from its allies are hurting the country.

An aerial view of completely destroyed settlements after shellings as Russia - Ukraine war continues, in northern Saltivka-3 neighbourhood, about 40 km from the Russian border in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine on June 12, 2022.

Alberque said there was a chance that the Russian line would collapse somewhere and they would have to push them toward the north.

It is a war of attrition because Russia is throwing tons and tons of equipment into the battle. The Luhansk fighters are being used ascannon fodder. There is a chance thatUkraine is going to lose more land.

Alberque is concerned that if Ukraine can't collapse parts of the Russian line, and start pushing them back, and force Russia into an even further reducedterritorial ambition, we may see some sort of frozen conflict that lasts a decade or more.

According to Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zel, the country wants hundreds of more pieces of heavy weaponry in order to end the war.

The request for tanks and more long-range weaponry such as howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems, which have a 50-80 kilometer range and can strike targets with precision-guided rockets, are what Ukraine needs right now.

Ukrainian troops fire with surface-to-surface rockets MLRS towards Russian positions at a front line in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on June 7, 2022.

The delivery of NATO-standard weapons, along with heavy troop and equipment losses on the Russian side, could still shift the military balance in favor of the Ukrainians.

He noted that it's not clear whether the deliveries are timely or enough to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas.