The words "new wave" are likely to be the last thing anyone wants to hear as we move into summer. The recent UK data shows that the Omicron variant, BA.4 and BA.5 are starting a new wave of cases. It is worth taking stock of where we are and what needs to be done with the Pandemic no longer dominating the news.
Even those who have had a previous version of Omicron can be affected by the variations on Omicron. This is more proof that reaching "herd immunity" against Covid-19 is not possible.
There has been a wave of Covid-19 cases every three months over the last two years. We should expect another wave this winter. We now have a wealth of scientific knowledge that can be used to fight the disease. What these cases mean for long Covid and for hospital stays should be the focus. New research shows Omicron is milder than Delta in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.
It would be better to avoid getting Covid-19 if you can, as the disease is linked to many negative health outcomes. The challenge is balancing the costs of avoiding Covid with the fact that we like to see other humans. Humans are social beings, and for many people a large part of their quality of life is interacting with others.
There has been an increase in covid infections in England.
If you had heard this before, you would know that masks and ventilation are important measures. In crowded settings, wearing a medical-grade mask is a good way to protect yourself from respiratory infections. They are expensive and can be uncomfortable if worn for long periods of time. Child specialists are concerned about the impact on child speech and emotional development because masks interfere with wanting to see peoples faces, engage with their emotions and interact at an intimate level. Reducing transmission depends on the amount of indoor air that is available. The difficulty Chinese authorities have in stopping the spread of Omicron in a highly controlled setting is just one example.
The cost-benefit calculation has changed over time as priorities have changed It was understandable to avoid infections in 2020 by limiting interactions to a few people. Waiting for a vaccine meant there was a payoff to being cautious and avoiding infections. According to an analysis by the Financial Times, Covid-19 has become less lethal than seasonal flu because of the high levels of immunity after vaccinations. Given that disease severity has been blunted with vaccines, most people want to interact and live life as they see best.
What is it that this means for us? The UK should use an age and risk factor priority scheme to cover everyone this autumn, instead of just people over 75, those in care homes and those with weakened immune systems. A "test to treat" scheme where people in vulnerable and elderly groups can get access to effective treatment early on if they test positive for a vaccine is needed.
Long Covid can lead to months of illness and suffering. We don't know who will get this and who will recover quickly. It's important to understand the biological mechanisms and treatments here. Recovery and rehabilitation can be supported. Research shows that people who had one vaccine were less likely to get long Covid than people who didn't.
What does this mean for the winter? It is equally important to invest in nurses, doctors, hospital staff and beds, even though the hospitalisation rate has fallen. The National Health Service is already stretched this summer. Unless the health service gets what it needs, it will result in unnecessary and preventable deaths.
The factors that help a person live a happy life are public health factors. While strong opinions continue to be voiced on whether we can live with Covid or not, the fact is that almost every country on this planet is learning to manage this disease among the many other problems that we face as humans. There is no easy fix for the situation. We are getting better at managing Covid, but we haven't solved it yet.
The University of Edinburgh has a chair in public health.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
