The Federal Reserve Chairman will speak at 2:30 p.m. on Monday. The day is Wednesday afternoon.
The central bank met for two days. The Fed is widely expected to raise its fed funds target rate range by a half a percentage point but hot May inflation data has made markets nervous about whether the Fed could be even more aggressive or forecast a faster pace of future rate hikes
New economic and interest rate forecasts will be released by the Fed at 2pm. There is an hour and a half later. Whatever Powell says about summer and autumn rate hikes will help set the course for financial markets. The Fed's rate hikes could cause a recession as investors fear that inflation may not be peaking.
Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo, said that the key thing was what Powell said in the conference. If he does it, he would only do it if he was going to be very cautious.
The fed funds futures market was up 56 basis points on Wednesday. The basis point is the percentage point.
The consumer price index for May was hotter than expected. The S&P 500 was down over the course of the week. The index lost 2.9% on Friday.
There is a chart.
Line chart with 776 data points.The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2022-01-03 10:00:00 to 2022-06-10 15:00:00.The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Range: 3750 to 5000.End of interactive chart.
The market wants to know if the Fed can pull this off without a recession. The market will be influenced by the data. You might be stuck in purgatory for a while.
Markets were already pricing in worries about hot inflation and recession when the inflation report came out. The 8.6% expected by the economists was well above the 8.6% rise in the inflation rate.
The debate about whether the Fed will consider a 75 basis-point rate hike and continue at a more aggressive rate hiking pace has been intensified by that. Other economists still expect a half point hike, despite the 75 basis-point hike being included in the forecasts of bothBarclays and Jeffries.
Goldman Sachs economists now expect a half-point increase in September, on top of a half-point hike Wednesday and another in July.
The Fed is expected to give new interest rate forecasts that reflect a faster pace of policy tightening, but they still see a half-point increase on Wednesday. The Fed's median forecast for interest rates will show the fed funds rate at 2.625% at the end of the year, well above the previous forecast of 1.875%.
Chair Powell wanted to guide expectations. The course seems set for a 50bp hike next week with little apparent appetite for an upside surprise.
Calvasina said she doesn't expect any surprises from the meeting. She said she was encouraged that some Fed officials might be willing to raise rates earlier in the year.
The markets are similar to that. She said it shows they aren't on autopilot. They don't want to do a lot of damage to the economy I want to hear more about that flexibility.
There are a number of important economic reports on the calendar next week, including the producer price index, retail sales, and housing starts. The reports covered May.
On Monday, there are a few earnings, includingOracle.
The yield curve flattened in the bond market after the hotter inflation report. The 2-year yield was closer to the 10-year yield than the other way around.
The 2-year Treasury yield was 3.05% and the spread was 10 basis points. The curve would be inverted if the two-year moved above the 10-year yield.
There is a chart.
Line chart with 177 data points.The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2018-12-30 18:00:00 to 2022-06-05 17:00:00.The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Range: 0 to 1.75.End of interactive chart.The stock market is pricing in a shallow recession at the moment. In more traditional recessions, the S&P 500 has declined an average 32%, and in this cycle it has fallen 20%.
There is a chance the market has set a bottom, according to the strategist. She said valuations have gotten reasonable enough that you can buy the names you want to buy.
Small caps may be one area that has become too much for stock investors.
She said that small caps looked as good as anything and that there was a little bit of thirst out there.
There is a Monday.
The company's earnings
The day Tuesday.
There is a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The sun is setting at 6 a.m. The NFIB surveys small businesses.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. It is referred to as thePPI.
It's Wednesday.
JohnWiley had earnings.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. There are retail sales.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. Prices for imports.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. State manufacturing.
There is a 10:30 a.m. There is a business inventory.
There is a 10:30 a.m. The NAHB surveys home builders.
2 pm. The Fed has a statement and a projection.
2 pm. The chairman of the Fed briefs the media.
4:30 a.m. Data from the TIC.
On Thursday.
Adobe, Kroger, Commercial metals, and Jabil have reported their earnings.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. Initial claim.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. Starts of housing.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. The Philadelphia Fed makes things.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. Business leaders are asked about their business.
On Friday.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. The Fed Chairman welcomed remarks at the conference.
The sun is setting at 9:00 a.m. Production of things.
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