Covid infections on the rise in England and Northern Ireland

Researchers warn that the UK may be entering its third wave of coronaviruses this year as infections are on the rise again in England and Northern Ireland.

The Office for National Statistics said there had been a small increase in positive tests in England and Northern Ireland, but the trend in Wales and Scotland wasn't clear.

The steady fall in infections over recent months may have gone into reverse as cases are driven up by the more transmissible BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variant.

In the week ending 2 June, an estimated 787,500 people in England and 27,700 in Northern Ireland would have tested positive for Covid, up from 784,100 and 24,300 the previous week.

The emergence of the first Omicron variant, BA.1, caused waves of Covid around the world. There was a second wave in the UK this year. There are two more transmissible descendants of BA.2 that are on the rise.

Public health officials are concerned about the spread of BA.5 which is causing fresh spikes in cases in Europe. At the end of May, BA.5 made up over a quarter of the Covid virus genomes analysed in England.

The percentage of people who tested positive for coronaviruses increased in London, the south-east and the north-wwest, but decreased in the east Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber. Infections have begun to rise in 35- to 49-year-olds, with clear increases seen in 35- to 49-year-olds.

The data shows a mixed picture for the UK with small increases in England and Northern Ireland likely driven by increasing trends in Omicron BA.4 and BA.5

Jubilee celebrations might have contributed to the rise, but were only one part of the large increase in interactions between large groups that continue unmitigated in the UK since all protections were dropped earlier this year.

There has been a recent rise in Covid hospitalisations. This could be caused by a greater number of infections, but also by the newer Omicron variant.

Much of the potential for severe disease is mitigated by the fact that we have widespread vaccinations. A complex pattern of immunity is created by vaccines, boosters and prior infections.

The spring booster programme and further shots in the autumn should prevent a lot of the severe disease seen in earlier waves of Covid. He said that given the lack of protections in schools, this will likely prompt further infections in children and staff, with predictable disruption across the board.