The economy and markets will get worse before they get better according to the results from the CNBC CFO Council.
Over 40% of chief financial officers cite inflation as the top external risk to their business, and the link between inflation and food and energy prices is clear from the C-suite ranking of the external factors that are weighing on them. As the Biden administration struggles for ways to increase oil supply and Russian ships sail with seized Ukrainian wheat, almost a quarter of CFOs cite Federal Reserve policy as the biggest risk factor.
Some CFOs think that the Fed won't be able to control inflation. More than half of people express confidence in the central bank, but that is not enough to change their view of where the economy is headed.
According to the majority of CFOs who responded to the survey, there will be a recession in the first half of next year. The CFO doesn't think the economy will avoid a recession until the second half of the year.
A sample of the current outlook among top financial officers can be found in the CNBC CFO Council Q2 survey. It was done among 22 CFOs at major organizations.
According to 42% of CFOs, the 10-year Treasury will flirt with 4% by the end of the year. The CFOs think the 10-year will rise to 3.49% by the end of the year. With a few outliers on the Council forecasting a 10-year that rises above 4% by the end of the year, there is concern about rates rising even more rapidly.
The European Central Bank said it will raise rates for the first time in over a decade.
The growth of the U.S. economy and global economy has slowed. A classic definition of a recession is a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. The World Bank just slashed its global growth outlook, warning that a period of Stagflation like the 1970s is possible and with its president saying, "For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid." The organization cut its prediction for global growth.
The CFO view of the stock market is that it will be lower because of the economic outlook.
The majority of CFOs think that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall below 30,000 before setting a new high. In a market where every bounce may be a dead cat, more than half of CFOs say that the current leader will stay in its spot.
In an interview with CNBC, El-Erian said anyone fully invested should take some chips off the table.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, warned about the economy last week.
One point of view that comes through from CFOs is that corporations are planning beyond the short term. There is a tug-of-war between a worsening outlook and indications from companies that they are not cutting back on hiring. Companies on the CFO Council are not going into their shells, despite the headlines from the tech sector. Almost half of CFOs say they will maintain current spending levels, but twice as many say they'll increase their spending. More than half of firms say they will increase their headcount over the next year. 18% of people think there will be a decrease in staff
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