There have been a number of high-profile mass shootings in the U.S., sparking calls for Congress to look at imposing a ban on so-called assault weapons.
It has been done before. In his June 2, 2022, speech addressing gun violence, President Joe Biden mentioned that bipartisan support in Congress helped push through a federal assault weapons ban in 1994.
The ban only applied to certain types of weapons and only after the act was signed into law could people keep their weapons. The ban expired in 2004, thanks to a so-called " sunset provision".
The 10-year life span of the ban gives researchers the chance to compare mass shooting deaths before and after the ban. A group of injury epidemiologists and trauma surgeons did that. In order to evaluate the effect of the federal ban on assault weapons, we published a population-based study in 2019. The data shows what happened.
The 1994 ban came before that.
The proportion of deaths in mass shootings in which an assault rifle was used was lower than it is today.
Mass shooting deaths were increasing. The killing of five children in Stockton, California, in 1989 and the San Francisco office attack in 1993 spurred a push for a ban on assault rifles.
The ban from 1994 to 2004.
The number of deaths from mass shootings fell after the assault weapons ban was put in place. The 1994 to 2004 period saw lower average annual rates of mass shootings and deaths due to such incidents than before the ban.
The years from 2004 onward.
In the years after the assault weapons ban expired, there was a steep rise in mass shooting deaths.
Between 2005 and the last year of our analysis, the average number of deaths attributed to mass shootings was 25 compared with 5.3 during the 10-year ban and 7.2 in the years leading up to the prohibition on assault weapons.
During the time when the assault weapons ban was active, the risk of a person dying in a mass shooting was 70% lower. Nine fewer mass-shooting-related deaths were associated with each 10,000 shooting deaths.
The number of lives that could be saved is underestimated. Mass shooting incidents that were reported and agreed upon by all three of our data sources were included in our study.
The federal definition of an assault weapon may not include the entire spectrum of what many people now consider to be an assault weapon.
It's important to note that we can't say that the assault weapons ban of 1994 caused a decrease in mass shootings or that the growth of deadly incidents in the years since has been caused by it.
Changes in domestic violence rates, political extremism, psychiatric illness, firearm availability, and a surge in sales are some of the additional factors that may contribute to the shifting frequencies of these shooting incidents.
After the law banning assault weapons expired in 2004, President Biden claimed that the rate of mass shootings went down only for it to go up again.
As the U.S. looks toward a solution to the country's epidemic of mass shootings, it is difficult to say whether reinstating the assault weapons ban would have a profound impact. Evidence shows that many of the mass shooters in recent years bought their weapons less than a year before committing their acts.
The Conversation is a news site that shares ideas from academic experts. It was written by Michael J. Klein.
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