The Omicron subvariants known as BA.4 and BA.5 now represent 13 percent of new coronaviruses in the United States, up from 7.5 percent a week ago and 1 percent in early May.
Current case counts in the United States are likely to be a significant underestimate due to the spread of the subvariants. Scientists don't know if it will lead to a new wave of infections or spikes in hospitalizations and deaths.
The C.D.C. estimates have missed the mark before and the new figures are based on modeling. Denis Nash is an epidemiologist at the CUNY Graduate School of Public.
Dr. Nash said that this could happen very soon.
There isn't much data on BA.4 and BA.5. The newer versions of Omicron may be better at evading the immune system than the earlier versions. There is no evidence that they cause more serious disease.
He asked, how similar is that for us? There is a chance that we could see another wave. He said that if the United States followed South Africa's example, the wave might be less pronounced and cause less hospitalizations and deaths.
According to a New York Times database, the US has averaged 100,000 new cases a day over the last few weeks.
There has been a decline in hospitalizations in the Northeast. The number of deaths has fluctuated between 250 and 400 a day over the last month, but the metric is not as high as it was during the Omicron surge. Statistics are less reliable around the Memorial Day holiday.
According to the most recent data, BA.4 and BA.5 represent a relatively small share of cases, but that could change in the weeks to come. The U.K. Health Security Agency stated in a recent report that the two subvariants were replacing the original version of Omicron about as quickly as the original version.
The new subvariants have gained ground in the US. BA.5 accounted for an estimated 7.6 percent of cases, up from 4.2 percent and 3.3 percent the previous week, while BA.4 accounted for an estimated 5.4 percent of cases, up from 4.2 percent and 3.3 percent.
The subvariants are very common in parts of the south. The new figures show that BA.4 and BA.5 account for more than one in five infections in the region.
The spread of the subvariants is highlighted by wastewater data. BA.4 and BA.5 showed up in a small number of the state's sewersheds, or geographic areas in which the wastewater feeds into a single treatment plant or other collection point. More than half of the wastewater analyzed by the University of Missouri has the subvariants.
According to preliminary research, unvaccinated people who were exposed to the original version of Omicron, known as BA.1, may be able to re-invade themselves. The study says that accused people are likely to fare better.
The newest subvariants have been able to spread quickly because of the evasiveness of the immune system.
Sarah Cahalan made a contribution.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
