Russian oil production could drop 18% by 2023 as the EU imposes a ban on all seaborne imports, the EIA says

The US Energy Information Administration said in its monthly report on Tuesday that Russia's oil output could fall by almost a fifth by the end of next year.

As it ramps up pressure on Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine, the EU is going to ban all Russian seaborne crude imports.

The EIA expects Russian oil production to fall by 18% by the end of next year if the EU ban on Russian seaborne trade is imposed in six months and eight months.

The EIA said that a reduction in Russia's oil production by more than expected creates upward risks for crude oil prices.

Russia exports around 7 million barrels of crude a day and around half of that goes to the EU in a combination of tanker and pipelines.

The expected decline in Russian oil output in 2020 would wipe out 18 years of production gains.

Western nations imposed a series of harsh sanctions on Russia and many commodity traders avoided its energy exports as a result. Russia is a member of the so-called OPEC+ group of exporters that agreed to restrain production in 2020. Russia may not be in a position to increase output in response to improved demand.

Russia has been forced to sell its oil at a discount to Asia in order to make less money. Between April and May, the total revenue from oil exports fell by $9 million, or about 5%, due to a rise in the price of oil.

The data shows that the export duty rates fell from April to May.