Americans Are Unusually Lukewarm About A Second Biden Term

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President Biden will run for reelection in four years. Many Americans don't want him to run for a second term because they don't believe him

There have been rumors about whether Biden would seek a second term. A Wall Street Journal poll found that more than half of registered voters don't think he'll run again in four years. Nineteen percent weren't sure. A second Biden run is unpopular. A majority of Americans don't want the president to run in 2024. Democrats are not sure about it. The CNN/SSRS poll was done in January and February. More than half of registered Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a candidate other than Biden.

It's possible that Americans are not enthusiastic about the 2020 election. According to the AP/NORC poll, a majority of people don't want Donald Trump to run for reelection. It is surprisingly common for voters to only support a first-term president when they run for reelection. Compared to previous first-term presidents, the share of Americans who don't want Biden to run again is high. It is uncommon for voters to think that a president won't run for reelection.

Concerns about Bidens age could be a factor. He will be 81 years old by the time he leaves office. Some voters might think it's time for Biden to step aside in favor of a candidate who's not an old, white man.

It is extremely rare for a first term president to not run for reelection. After one full term, only six presidents have decided to leave office. Four of those presidents had been in the White House for more than four years because they took over from their predecessors. After four years in office, the last president to call it quits was in 1884.

Voters assume that presidents will run for another term. A majority of Americans thought Ronald Reagan would run again in 1984 despite the fact that his party lost seats in congress. A Newsweek poll conducted in December 1994 found that 85 percent of Americans thought President Bill Clinton would run again in 1996, even though his party suffered huge losses in the election. Most Americans think that Trump will run again in 2020, according to a December poll.

It's not clear whether voters are happy about a first-term president. A majority of Americans think Reagan shouldn't run again. More Americans thought Clinton shouldn't run for reelection in December 1994 than they thought he should. It isn't always the case that Americans don't want a first term president. More Americans think that President Barack Obama should run for reelection than think he shouldn't.

In a way, Biden's case is not that unusual for his supporters. The percentage of Americans who don't want him to run for reelection is higher than it was for Reagan, Clinton or Obama. If a president tries for a second term, we don't know much about their electoral chances. Reagan won by a wide margin in 1984 despite voters not liking him.

There are a few reasons to believe that Americans will view a second Biden run differently than previous ones. 31 percent of Democrats who wanted the party to nominate someone else said they didn't want Biden to be reelection, 35 percent thought he couldn't win against the Republicans, and 19 percent thought he was too old. A Suffolk poll of Republican primary voters in April of last year found that most wanted Trump to run again. It's possible that the fact that so many Democrats have concerns about Biden is worrying for him.

Biden has been a problem for voters for a long time. He will be 86 when he leaves office if he is elected to a second term. 31 percent of people who supported Biden in 2020 were concerned about his age and health, according to a survey. Americans generally have reservations about electing a candidate who is older. 58 percent of Americans support a maximum age limit for elected officials according to a survey conducted in January.

It is possible that some Americans want Biden to step aside in favor of another person. Maybe they would prefer someone who represents the party's growing diversity, or someone who has a better chance of defeating the Republican nominee. Biden's approval ratings are low and his support among young voters, Hispanics, and Black voters has waned. Biden made a lot of promises at the beginning of his term, but he hasn't been able to fulfill them. They may be afraid he can't win.

Other polling bites

• Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, according to a new report from Gallup. In May, Gallup’s economic confidence index — a metric that summarizes how Americans are feeling about the economy on a scale from 100 to -100 — came in at -45, down from -39 in the previous two months. It’s likely the lowest that Americans’ confidence in the economy has been since the Great Recession.
• Just in time for Pride Month, a Gallup survey conducted from May 2-22 found that 71 percent of Americans support legal same-sex marriage. That’s not a noticeable change from last year when 70 percent of Americans said they supported same-sex marriage, but Gallup’s trend is a reminder of how much public opinion on this issue has shifted over the past two decades. In 2004, less than half (42 percent) of Americans supported same-sex marriage. And ten years ago, in 2012, support was hovering right around 50 percent.
• Following the leak of a Supreme Court opinion that suggested five justices may be willing to overturn Roe v. Wade, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll conducted from May 9-17 found that Americans remain firmly opposed to the move. Two-thirds (68 percent) of Americans said they would not like to see the court overturn Roe, which established the constitutional right to abortion in 1973, while 30 percent said they would like to see that outcome. The poll also found that the share of Americans who say a woman should be able to have an abortion for any reason (57 percent) is at its highest point since NORC began asking the question in 1977.
• Should kids be required to recite the Pledge of Allegiance in schools each day? A YouGov poll conducted on June 2 found that a majority (52 percent) of Americans think so, while 33 percent say they shouldn’t be required to say the Pledge of Allegiance, and 15 percent said they’re not sure.

Biden approval

53.9% of Americans disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, according to the presidential approval tracker. At this time a week ago, 40.5 percent approved and 54.3% disapproved. Biden had an approval rating of 42.0 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.3 percent, for a net approval rating of -10) points.

Generic ballot

2 Republicans are currently leading by 2.2 percentage points in our average of polls. Republicans had a 2.2 point lead over Democrats last week. Last month, voters preferred Republicans by a wide margin.