Box Office: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Performs Like ‘Passion Of The Christ’ And ‘American Sniper’

Tom Cruise is going to be the biggest domestic grosser with Top Gun. The Skydance/Paramount release earned another $25 million on Friday, down from its $52 million opening day, but still bringing its domestic total to $230 million. The sequel to Steven Spielberg's War of the Worlds is close to passing the lifetime gross of the film. There is inflation to be considered, but it may only be a caveat for another week or two.

The Friday-to-Friday drop is as small as I could find for the post-Memorial Day weekend, with the exception of The Longest Yard. The comparison is not something from Memorial Day weekend, like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, but rather Clint Eastwood's American Sniper and MelGibson's ThePassion of the Christ.

After 22 days of platform release, Bradly Cooper's war actioner/biopic opened wide with an 89 million Fri-Sun/$107 million Fri-Mon MLK weekend debut. It fell just 40% to $18 million on its second wide-release Friday and earned $64.6 million over the Fri-Sun frame, dropping just 28% and crossing $200 million by the end of that second wide-release weekend. The film dropped 40% on Friday #2 and $36 million in its second Fri-Sun frame. The faith-based movie opened with $128 million over its first day, and ended with $370 million.

Both general moviegoers and those who don't usually go to the cinema for anything else saw those films. It has hit paydirt with consumers who think that all Hollywood makes are comic book movies and liberals. The film has been embraced by those who wouldn't show up, as well as Tom Cruise fans, and those who just want to see a well-oiled, non-fantastical, adult-ske.

It's icing on the cake that all of these elements are in a package. It isn't fair to call Top Gun: Maverick "American Sniper for kids". It's possible that Top Gun could do the same thing. A second weekend gross of $85 million would bring its ten-day gross to $290 million. If that is the case, the film will be over $500 million in lifetime gross and past any non-Mission: Impossible movie ever save for War of the Worlds.

It would make it Cruise's ninth-biggest grosser when adjusted for inflation, behind the likes of Top Gun, Rain Man, and War of the Worlds. It will earn over/under 1.74x its total if it plays like those smash hits. If it grosses $85 million this weekend, it will be the biggest second-weekend gross ever for a film whose Fri-Sun opening gross was below $170 million.

Let's not get carried away because Aladdin earned $356 million from a $186 million ten-day total. It might have to settle for a measly $467 million domestic if it only lasts from here. Even a run like Puss in Boots, which opened with $34 million then dropped 3% in weekend two and 25% in weekend three before dropping off a cliff after Thanksgiving with $149 million total, still gets top gun: maverick.

These are crazy comparisons, but they are also strong day-to-day holds with a global total of $434 million. The Navy actioner will still be seen in IMAX and PLF screens around the world next weekend, despite the fact that the movie will be replaced by another movie. The buzz, the reviews, the word-of-mouth, the old-school "action drama about normal people" hook and everything else is associated with Tom Cruise and the Top Gun franchise.

I think it is a perfect storm.