In May of this year, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO together.
Their likely accession to the alliance would end their decades of military non-alignment and rearrange the security environment in northern Europe.
John Deni, a senior fellow with the Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council and a research professor, said that NATO membership will probably complicate military planning for Russia, especially when it comes to offensive military operations against NATO states in northeastern Europe.
NATO's land border with Russia would double from 750 to 1,600 miles and the Kola Peninsula would be added to the alliance.
The Kola Peninsula has the largest concentration of nuclear weapons in the world. It has access to the Barents and the North Sea and is the only port in the Russia's Arctic that is ice-free all year.
The majority of the country's nuclear-powered submarines are in the Northern Fleet. The fleet is a vital part of Russia's nuclear capability.
The importance of the Kola Peninsula and the high north was highlighted in 2020 when President Putin elevated the Northern Fleet to an independent military-administrative district.
NATO officials say that the Kola Peninsula is central to Russia's defense because it has many military bases and installations that support the Northern Fleet.
The Northern Fleet has roughly 20 operational submarines, many of which are nuclear-powered. The fourth-generation Borei-class and Yasen-class submarines are its mainstays.
Russia's newest and most powerful nuclear-powered missile submarines can carry up to 96 nuclear warheads. The Northern Fleet has two Borei-class subs deployed and three more under construction.
The first Yasen-class nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine was commissioned in 2013 and the newest variant was commissioned last year. Three more will join the Northern Fleet eventually.
NATO officials believe that Russia would likely use long-range weapons against ports and other infrastructure if it were to use conventional cruise missiles.
The headquarters of the Northern Fleet is located in Kola Bay. In addition to the submarine bases in Zaozyorsk, there are also bases in Zapadnaya Litsa, and on Olenya Bay.
There are a number of air bases that can support strategic bombers on the peninsula.
Putin ordered the modernization of Russia's military arsenal in 2012 with priority given to its nuclear weapons. The Kola Peninsula had a large concentration of such weapons that led to a program of upgrade, expansion, and modernization of the naval and air force facilities.
According to a review of satellite imagery by The Barents Observer, a Norwegian outlet based just a few miles from the Russian border, Moscow is building 50 reinforced weapons bunkers to store long-range nuclear and conventional missiles on the peninsula.
The Kola Peninsula is being expanded by the Russian Ministry of Defense to better support subs.
New docking facilities and other infrastructure for subs and special loading and unloading facilities for nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles are being constructed in many of the peninsula's submarine bases to correct operational deficiencies faced by the Soviet-era Northern Fleet.
Russia is modernizing one of the air bases. The Russian military would be better aware of the region and be able to reach more people as the ice becomes more accessible.
Both Sweden and Finland are members of NATO. NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partners are the closest partnership a non-member can have with the alliance. NATO membership will increase their cooperation.
Deni said that Russia will likely be concerned about NATO proximity to Russian forces in the Kola Peninsula during peacetime and conflict.
Deni was skeptical that Moscow would need to increase its military deterrence in the north if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance.
Deni said that NATO has a serious lack of offensive military capability and capacity in the region.
Deni told Insider that the threat posed by the West is inflated by the Kremlin to boost its own standing domestically and to justify massive military expenditures.
Russian military planning for operations in the Baltic Sea and in theArctic would be more complicated if NATO joined, as they may be more willing and able to share information with NATO on Russian activities in these two regions, Deni said.
The Baltic Sea would be almost completely surrounded by NATO if Sweden and Finland joined the alliance, according to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
That enclosure would present a bunch of different dilemmas, almost geometric, that Russia doesn't have right now.
Constantine Atlamazoglou works on security. He obtained a masters degree in security studies and European affairs from the school.
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