In May, the collapse of one of the most popular U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin projects cost investors tens of billions of dollars as they pulled out in a panic that some have compared to a bank run. terraUSD and its sister token luna had experienced a pretty spectacular run-up before it all collapsed, and some investors made a killing.
Pantera Capital told CNBC that it earned a 100 times return on its investment in luna. The Hack VC and CMCC Global didn't share their exact gains, but they did say that it was closed.
The scheme relied on faith and the promise of future returns, plus a complex set of code, with very little hard cash to back up the whole arrangement.
Unlike USDC, which has assets in reserve as a way to back their token, UST was created and administered by Singapore-based Terraform Labs. It depended on computer code to create and destroy UST and luna in a sort of supply-and-demand seesaw effect.
It worked for a while.
The dollar peg was held by UST. In less than two months, the luna token went from less than $10 to more than $116. The system allowed traders to profit from deviations in the price of the two token. The greatest incentive of the whole scheme was the Anchor lending platform, which promised investors a 20% annual percentage yield on their UST holdings; a rate many analysts said was unsustainable.
Widespread buy-in and public PSAs from respected financial institutions lent credibility to the project, further driving the narrative that the whole thing was legit.
It all came crashing down in May.
When the price of luna became unstable, investors rushed out of both token, sending prices off a cliff. The Luna Foundation Guard tried to restore the UST's $1 peg by spending almost all of the digital currency in its reserve. It didn't work.
At their peak, luna and UST had a market value of over $60 billion. They are essentially worthless now.
The advantages of experienced large-scale investors over retail investors have been laid bare in the episode.
A person posted on the internet that they didn't think they would have enough money to pay for school after losing money. The investor affected by the crash said that she and her husband sold their house and bet it all on luna, noting that she was still trying to comprehend whether it was actually happening or just a nightmare.
Others are considering suicide after losing everything.
I'm lost, about to commit suicide in a chair. I lost 62 thousand dollars. I don't know what to do.
Pantera Capital, a hedge fund, saw a 100x return on its investment, among the winners of the UST flash crash.
The co-chief investment officer of the fund told CNBC that they sold about 85% of their position in the primary fund. Pantera sold 8% more in May when it was clear that the UST peg had broken. Pantera got stuck with about 5% of their position.
If the remaining luna are worth nothing, the return on the initial investment will be $171 million.
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, talked about his top altcoin picks on CNBC. luna was up more than 15000% in the year 2021.
Morehead said that luna is one of the most promising coins for the coming year.
The firm's initial decision to liquidate was due to risk management and rebalancing the fund.
It was a simple risk management reason for the large portion which we sold over the next few years.
The UST $1 peg broke in May and sold again.
It was just seeing the peg break by a few cents and pattern matching it to historical currency pegs. Even though the firm owned a lot of luna, when UST trades under its peg, the dynamic is such that more luna is minted, lowering the value of each coin overall.
You want to sell it so that you don't end up getting hurt.
Terraform's first seed investors were Hong Kong-based venture firm CMCC Global.
Martin Baumann told CNBC that it sold its stake in March because of concerns. The tech behind UST was a factor in the decision to sell, but his main concern was regulation.
As opposed to asset backed stable coins, which are derivatives of existingUSD in circulation, UST was effectively increasing the money supply ofUSD in existence.
Baumann said that regulators would not tolerate tampering with money supply.
The rapid growth of UST accelerated the concerns of CMCC.
The luna token was trading for about $100 when it was sold. Baumann said the firm doesn't comment on returns or performance of individual investments.
Hack VC exited its Luna stake in December.
CNBC reached out to Hack VC partner, but he didn't respond to our request for comment on the profitability of that sale. Yesep said in a recent interview that they were seed investors in Terra when it was a different entity.
Yesep said that it sucks to see a bunch of people get impacted.
There is a merchant bank founded by a billionaire investor.
In a public letter addressed to shareholders, friends, partners, and the community, he wrote about getting a luna tattoo on his arm to remember his status as an official.
The largest contributor to the net realized gain on digital assets was sales of luna.
Some of the biggest names in venture capital were backers of Terraform Labs. The luna token was bought by Three Arrows Capital. CNBC doesn't know how these firms did.
Terra backers voted to revive the failed venture. The proposed re-build involves getting rid of the stable coin that helped cause the project's downfall. It could mean redemption for retail and institutional investors who were wiped out.
If you saw a big loss, the re-launch may be able to help you recover your initial investments.
Delphi Digital has disclosed that it is currently sitting on a large unrealized loss after miscalculating the risk of a death spiral event coming to fruition.
The terra 2.0 proposal includes a plan to distribute the old luna and UST token to their holders. If the rebranded coins take off, that could be redemption for investors who have suffered a loss.
Those who got out before things went south are steering clear.
A good chunk of the airdropped token will be vested over a number of years. I would love to see something community driven succeed here, but we are a fairly chain-agnostic fund.
Baumann said the fund decided not to make new investments at this time.
The founder of Terraform Labs bragged days before the collapse that 95 percent of coins would go to the poor.
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