The stock market almost fell into a bear market, but has rebounded in the past week. Victoria Greene is the founding partner and chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth.
She talked about why she doesn't think the selling is over, and gave her perspective on the outlook for oil and energy stocks. The highlights of the conversation were lightly edited. Click here to subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you can listen.
Do you think we have bottomed yet?
I don't think we found a bottom yet. I don't think we're done yet. I always ask what is our catalyst, how are we going to get growth, so I think this is a little bit more the first leg. You haven't seen a lot of earnings revisions. Valuations have come down. The P part of the P/E has come down. When the E goes back down, what happens? There are two parts to that.
I don't think we're done yet. I think it's a relief rally. If you look for the signs of capitulation, we are not there yet. Cash balances have increased and we have seen some equity selling, but not a panic. Not to sound snobbery, but I need a panic. Everything is selling off, we haven't seen that before. We are not there yet. Where is your growth? We are going to have to wait for the Fed to send the economy into a recession to stop the squeeze on margins.
A: Your firm is located in Texas. Does the energy industry affect your clients?
It makes them more bullish on the energy industry. Ex-energy is run by some of our clients because of their exposures. If you are on a board of a public company, you already have that exposure. Everybody in Texas is aware that the oil market is seasonal. There is a flip side to riding up the good times. The last decade has been very hard on the energy industry. Within 10 years, we had five crashes. We are bullish energy and the energy transition, but it will take a little bit longer to adopt electric. We are seeing that play out here.
The death of energy was over-exaggerated by a lot of our clients. It's not to say there aren't concerns about ESG or climate change, but it tends to make them more willing to have a foothold in that segment. It's a little bit of what you know, so I think that influences what you feel comfortable investing in. If you're in the San Francisco area, you're likely to be very comfortable with your tech exposure and a little bit more comfortable with the early-stage and small-cap tech.
Which energy companies do you like?
The theme of what's happening in the world right now is deglobalization. Russia has been removed from the market and you are seeing a lot of supply and demand hitting commodities harder. It is hitting, not just energy. It's all of the exports and precious metals. They are a huge supplier of palladium. It takes a lot of time to build up supply chains when you see a rebalance and shift. For the next 18 months, our base case is that oil stays elevated. I don't think it will come back down. I don't think there will be a demand crunch. If you look at the travel and consumption in the United States and Europe, most developed nations do not have a zero-covid policy anymore.
Covid is a dirty word because we are so tired of talking about it. It is still there. That is what is affecting China and Chinese demand. China and India have shown willingness to buy cheap Russian crude. Some of it is easy for them to get and they are concerned about their economic growth. Some demand in China may be waning. $90 to $100 a barrel for the next 18 months is definitely possible. You haven't seen the wildcatter mentality come back in.
We had the change of the oil group. The oil and gas industry had a grand de-investment. We're well below peak now. We are still below the oil and gas rigs of the past. You will see this theme in the oil and gas stocks that I like, like the Pioneer, the EOG, and the FANG, they are US-based with a big footprint in the Permian. They push cash to shareholders because they have low break-evens. They aren't putting it back in the ground. They are thanking shareholders for trusting them. We didn't make you money for a decade, but here you go. Let's make some money now.
You don't see the wildcatter mentality that happened with other oil-price spikes because you have this massive inflow of rigs. The slope of how the rig count has increased is a much lower trajectory. Nobody is pushing a lot of money back into capex. We love the stock that gives our shareholders the best return right now, like Devon Energy, which has a 16% free-cash-flow yield. They push out half of their free-cash flow in a variable dividend every quarter. You're talking a lot of money to sit and wait, and you might get price appreciations still because they keep making more money. The only place where we think earnings will go up is energy. The P/Es are still very nominal and very value-oriented, even with the massive price moving up in a lot of these stocks.
The highlights were just that. Click here to listen to the whole thing.
With assistance from Stacey Wong.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
