Tom Cruise in 'Top Gun: Maverick'

Tom Cruise is in a movie.

Paramount and Skydance

After three years of delays, Skydance and Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick took the box office by storm with a jaw-dropping $51.8 million Friday gross. The sequel's Friday gross is a raw $31.94 million, which is still a record for Paramount and Memorial Day weekend. It's just shy of the biggest Memorial Day weekend opening of all time, with a gross of $56 million for Pirates of the Caribbean: At. Considering the film's rave reviews and A+ Cinemascore grade, I think it will end Monday above the opening weekend of Pirates 3. Tom Cruise has set Memorial Day weekend records in the past.

Before this weekend, Tom Cruise's biggest opening weekend outside of the Mission: Impossible franchise was War of the Worlds, which opened to $65 million. Over the last nine years, I have noted that Tom Cruise's stardom peaked when $30 million was a big budget, 15 million was a solid opening weekend and $200 million worldwide was an unmitigated success. Harrison Ford's biggest opener before Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was in the summer of 2008, when Air Force One opened to $37 million.

Interview with the Vampire set the record for a non- summer debut with $36 million, but that was a record for an R-rated opener. Tom Cruise's Mission: Impossible opened with a $45 million Fri-Sun gross and a then-record $75 million six-day gross over the Memorial Day weekend. Mission: Impossible II opened with $58 million more than the Fri-Sun part of the movie, which had a $92 million debut. It has been awhile since Cruise set box office records. Top Gun: Maverick, which has $116.5 million worldwide thus far, is playing like a mid 1990s Cruise biggie on steroids.

The $170 million question has been haunting me since the film was initially shot, and Pete Mitchell is absolutely a marquee character. Tom Cruise may be limited in his bankability when it comes to playing a new character like Jack Reacher, not James Bond in Knight and Day. It's not like Harrison Ford's later years. He hasn't been an opener since 2000. Put him in Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull or Star Wars: The Force Awakens and he is worth his weight in gold.

The film more-or-less delivered IMAX-worthy spectacle, crowd-pleasing story beats and nostalgia that earned reviews closer to Creed than to Dark Fate didn't hurt. The Joseph Kosinski-helmed action drama blends the genre goods from his Cruise-starring sci-fi romp Oblivion with the emotional melodrama of his spectacular knockout firefighter drama Only the Brave. It's similar to Tony Scott's early work but has a more level-headed sincerity and four-quadrant wholesomeness. With a light summer slate mostly dominated by MCU heroes and kids toons, Top Gun: Maverick is positioned as a grown-up event movie of the season.

If Top Gun: Maverick legs like Fast & Furious 6 or A Star Wars Story, it still gets to over/under $150 million for the Fri-Mon weekend. It will end Monday with over/under $150 million, both with a Fri-Sun gross of $115-125 million. It will be between $195 million and $200 million by Monday if The Lost World: Jurassic Park and Aladdin are any indication. Tom Cruise is about to get a $100 million opening weekend. Theater owners are relieved that non-superhero tentpoles are viable. The first $100 million-plus opener for Paramount since 2014 must be partying like it was 2011.

20th Century Studios opened Bob's Burgers: The Movie on Friday. The last of the delayed-by- Covid 2020 releases are on July 1st. The feature-length extension of a long-running Fox television show again shows the value of comparatively niche films. The fans will show up for the specific titles even if they don't go to the regular cinema. The Bob's Burgers movie is expected to bring in $19.05 million during the holiday weekend. I don't know the budget, but I guess it's between TeenTitans GO! The To the Movies cost $10 million and The Simpsons Movie cost $75 million.