Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | History lessons

Dear reader.

Is history a sign of the future? Why do investors ignore history when the chips are down? Maybe it is just an attempt to find out when the bad times will end and our investments will once again be profitable. Nobody is interested in knowing when the good times will end during bull runs.

The average length of bear markets and how long it takes for the indices to return to the peaks scaled earlier have been looked at by market experts.

Mark Twain said that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Does an average make sense? When the markets plunged in 2020, it took only a few months to get back to their former highs, but it took more than four years for the Sensex to get back to its 2000 high.

The current environment is not average. When was the last time central bank policy rates were so low? When was the last time there was a huge disruption in supply chains? When did we last have a disease? Had large swathes of the world's second largest economy been shut down before? The developing world is being hurt more by Russia's de-globalisation and disruptive climate change than by trade wars.

Unlike earlier market downturns, central banks can't go in for quantitative easing because inflation is high. With fiscal deficits at record highs, there is no scope for government spending to boost growth. China may not be the engine of a global recovery, but it may be the epicenter of a new bear market. Herodotus, who is known as the Father of History, is also known as the Father of lies.

There are other ways to read tea leaves. MC Pro columnist Ananya Roy looked at the difference between US and Indian 10-year bond yields to predict when FII selling willbate. My colleague looked at the technical picture for copper to decipher clues about the equity markets.

The next crisis may be in the private markets according to the author. In India, the disjuncture between private and public market valuations has been hammered home.

In these troubled times, geopolitics has become essential reading for investors and the war in Ukraine was a big topic at the World Economic Forum meet. There were articles about the problems facing China and the reasons for the Quad.

The US markets took solace from the Fed minutes, with reports of insiders buying the dip. The Chinese authorities have announced a number of measures to support growth. If growth is not enough to lower inflation, it will be a problem. Growth in the developed economies is slowing, but inflation is still very strong.

The Economic Recovery Tracker shows most weekly indicators in the red, but only mildly. The central government is trying to fix the supply side of the economy while the Reserve Bank of India is trying to restrict demand.

This is a stockpicker's market. Our research team burnt midnight oil to analyse the corporate results. I have divided the companies into several broad categories.

The fight against inflation affects industries.

Steel

There are textiles.

There is sugar.

There are stocks that cater to bare necessities.

Page industries.

Rupa Company and Dollar Industries.

The retail division of the Aditya Birla group.

There are stocks for the opening up of the economy.

InterGlobe Aviation.

Some stocks have already gone up a bit.

The easy trip planners.

The Hindustan Aeronautics.

There are stocks that have corrected a lot.

The company is called Hindalco.

It's called Paytm.

There are dividend yield stocks.

The power grid.

NTPC.

NTPC once more.

Those affected by the slow down.

IT stocks.

The company is called Zee Entertainment.

There are stocks with pricing power.

The Labs of Divi.

There are stocks with a regulatory moat.

Mapmy India.

There are stocks with undemanding valuations.

The name of the company is Ashok Leyland.

Zydus Lifesciences is a company.

The bank is called Karur Vysya Bank.

The Exide and Amara Raj.

Control the print.

I don't know how to fit in.

Dodla dairy.

Aether IPO.

It was Concor.

Goldiam International.

Short sellers in tech stocks are laughing all the way to the bank, so falling markets may be an opportunity.

We had regular offerings such as Start-Up Street and DecodingPLI. We wrote about the excitement caused by the Supreme Court ruling on the Goods and Services Tax in Hong Kong. It was the first time that anyone had compared the investment process to hair coloring.

Our strategy lab is an example of trying to learn from history. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

Henry Ford said that history is more or less bunk.

Cheers.

There is a person named Manas Chakravarty.

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