The following essay is available for re-publication in The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
The Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average as the Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1. The current of warm tropical water that is looping far into the Gulf for this time of year has the power to turn tropical storms into monster hurricanes.
The 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks is called the loop current.
When the loop current reaches this far north this early in the season, it can cause disaster for people along the Northern Gulf Coast.
You can easily spot the loop current if you look at the temperature maps. The Florida Current is the main contributor to the Gulf Stream, as it goes through the Florida Strait south of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm can explode in strength when it draws energy from the warm water from the giant eddies that spin off from the current.
The way the loop current is this year is similar to the way it was in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. The year had 27 named storms, seven of which became major hurricanes.
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I have been studying ocean heat content for more than 30 years. The conditions in the Gulf in May 2022, are cause for concern. There will be 14-21 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Some of the storms could be helped by the loop current.
Warm ocean water doesn't mean more storms. Tropical storms can strengthen into hurricanes once they reach waters that are 78 F (26 C) or warmer.
Most of the strength of hurricanes comes from the top 100 feet (30 meters) of the ocean. Warm spots in the upper ocean are usually allowed to cool quickly. The Gulf common water is saltier than the subtropical water of the loop current. The warm current and its eddies can retain heat to great depths because of these effects.
The water temperature in the loop current was 78 F in May of 2022, which is about 330 feet (100 meters) below the surface. The heat could go down to 500 feet by the summer.
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The eddy that fueled Hurricane Ida was over 86 F at the surface and had a temperature of 30 C. With favorable atmospheric conditions, the storm exploded into a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.
Warm ocean water can create a huge amount of warm, moist air within a storm. When you boil a large pot of spaghetti on the stove, think about how the steam will rise as the water gets hotter. The pressure drops as more heat and water rise. The horizontal pressure difference between the center of the storm and its periphery causes the wind to speed up and the storm to become more dangerous.
The pressure on the eddies will continue to fall since the loop Current has so much heat. In 2005, there were two hurricanes that had the lowest central pressure in the Atlantic.
There are other clues to how the season will play out. The climate is different between El Ni and La Ni.
The jet stream is pushed north by the colder water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean. That weakens wind shear in the southern U.S. The change in wind speeds and wind directions is called wind shear. Tropical storms can be torn apart by too much wind shear. More hurricanes can be caused by less wind shear and more humidity in the atmosphere.
It is possible that La Ni could weaken later in the year, allowing for more wind shear towards the end of the season. The upper atmosphere is not doing much to stop a storm.
It is too early to tell what will happen with the steering winds that guide tropical storms. Dust from the Sahara and low humidity in West Africa are factors that can affect whether tropical storms form in the Atlantic.
The ocean's temperature is increasing as global temperatures rise. The heat trapped by greenhouse gases can be found in the ocean, where it can be used to fuel hurricanes.
There won't be more storms overall, but there will be more storms in the Atlantic as the temperatures rise. The study found that the storms produced more rain than they would have in a world without them.
The warm eddies of the loop current have more heat than in the past. The impact of a warming trend could be devastating.
The Conversation published this article. The original article is worth a read.
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