The hype train for the 2022 NFL season has just left the station, it jumped off the tracks, and started singing a collection of Tupac's greatest hits. People are crazy with some of the predictions. Who is picking the Lions and Jets to make the playoffs? I tell you that it's delusional. There is nothing that shows the delusion befallen many football fans. You would think NFL fans would jump at the chance to watch Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen every Sunday or Thursday or Monday. Nope! Not even close. The person who gets the most bets for the league's most valuable player in the year 2022, isn't even in the top 10 in terms of odds. Over the last 30 days, Hurts has received 25.9% of all bets for the league's most valuable player. He has a good chance of taking home the hardware. The next closest competitor has almost twice as many bets.
What do you think is third on this list? I guarantee you can guess it. Did you know who Matt Ryan was? Bullshit. No, you didn't call that. He received more votes than any other person at +8000 odds. Hurts and Ryan are both on this list, but they pale in comparison to who is receiving the fourth-most votes. Is that really true? He is getting 7.4 percent of the bets. That is equal to Allen and Herbert, both of which are receiving 3.7 percent of bets right now.
I know the kid is talented and Kyle Shanahan traded three first-round picks to get him, so they must have a lot of faith in him. Patrick Mahomes took home the award a year after sitting behind Alex Smith. Can we expect Lance to have the same success? Only two second-year quarterbacks have won the Most Valuable Player after starting less than five games in their first season, and that's a tall order for anyone no matter how talented. While Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the 49ers, are we really ready to put Lance on that level after completing just 57.7% of his passes last year? I'm not ready for that. I don't think I have the guts to make a call like that.
Lance opened at 200 to 1 odds to win the Most Valuable Player, but his odds have dropped to 60 to 1 since then. Stop! Vegas is just taking money from you. They took a look at Lance's film tape and thought, "You know what?" They're only doing this because so many people are putting money on him that, by lowering his odds to 60-to-1, people will be more inclined to put more money on him.
I like long shots when it comes to betting. If you put a chunk of change on Lance at 200-to-1 odds, I respect it. Do you go for broke or not? Lance is still seeing money come in from all over, even though veterans like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford are not getting much love from bettors. We know for a fact that they will be their team's starting players in Week 1. I know the presumption is that Garoppolo will be gone by the start of the season, but until that day comes, and until the whole Deebo Samuel situation is figured out, Lance seems like a bit of a reach.
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