This Year's Hurricane Forecast Is Here, and It's Bad

The number of storms this season would likely exceed the 30-year average for the seventh year in a row, according to a forecast issued by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

If you fail to plan around this outlook, you're planning to fail, because this year is going to be similar to last year and given that you need only one bad storm to dramatically affect your life.

The range of storms this year will likely be between 14 and 21. By the way, Hermine, Gaston, Shary, and Virginie are included in the names list. Expectant parents should take note. Tropical storms have wind speeds greater than 39 miles per hour. There could be between six and 10 named storms that develop into hurricanes, three of which could be major hurricanes. There is a 65% chance that this season will be more active than usual.

The increasing number of storms seems like a slam-dunk climate signal, but there are a lot of other factors to consider. There is a La Ni effect in play this year that will send a polar jet stream toward the U.S. and make conditions in the southern part of the country dryer and warmer. This can give hurricanes an ideal environment to grow and strengthen. The hurricanes probably intensified in the years of 2020 and 2021. Scientists are unsure of how climate change relates to the number of hurricanes. Improved technology is helping us catch and monitor more storms than we may have been able to before advanced satellites.

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It doesn't mean climate change is unrelated to stronger storms. Storms need warm ocean surface temperatures to develop and strengthen, while warmer air can cause more and more intense rain. A study released earlier this year found that during the 2020 Hurricane season, one of the most extreme on record, climate change caused 5% more total rainfall across all named storms, with rain coming down at a 10% faster rate. 8% and 11% were the percentages for that season. This study was the first to link the strength of an entire season of storms to climate change.

Climate change is making storms even more devastating when they make landfall, as sea level rise makes things worse. Last year's Hurricane Ida is an example. Sea levels on the Gulf Coast have increased by 50 feet due to a combination of climate change and coastal erosion.