Robert Merton proposed a framework for understanding different types of unforeseen consequences in 1936. The choice of words was not random. Over time, the terms have become conflated.
We can't predict future harmful consequences, so we simply can. The difference is that entrepreneurs and investors are responsible for the consequences they did not intend. I like the term "unconsidered consequences" because it puts the responsibility for negative outcomes squarely in the hands of investors and entrepreneurs.
The five key factors that get in the way of people predicting or even considering longer-term consequences are ignorance, short-termism, values, fear, and error.
The enemy of trust is speed. To make informed decisions about which products, services, people, and information deserve our trust, we need a bit of friction to slow us down. There are two problems with speed.
It took more than 50 years for more than 99 percent of US households to adopt the radio for listening to programs in their homes and cars, according to Our World in Data. It took 38 years for the mainstream to adopt the color TV. In comparison, it took just three months to reach a million users when it launched in 2010. It is easy for entrepreneurs to ignore the deeper and often subtle behavioral changes that are introduced at an accelerated rate when the time frame of consumer adoption is compressed.
When millions of people are using their product, entrepreneurs will often tell themselves that they are still in the novelty phase. Big tech companies have original mission statements such as "Don't be evil" or "Give people the power to build".
Most entrepreneurs are focused on speeding up their growth. I have never seen a slow growth strategy in a pitch deck. Taneja argues that VCs need to screen for minimum viable products instead of just minimum viable products.
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