Forget About Mars, When Will Humans be Flying to Saturn?

The human exploration of the solar system will not stop at the Moon and Mars. For those interested in space exploration, the question is only when, rather than if, our descendants will spread throughout the solar system. A group of researchers from the US, China, and the Netherlands have released a paper on the topic. Their approach is highly theoretical, but it is likely more accurate than previous estimates, and it gives a reasonable idea of when we could expect to see humans in the outer solar system. They think we could reach the Saturnian system in 2153.

It's best to start at the basics, since it's difficult to start such a calculation. The authors needed two variables to understand when humans will reach further out in the solar system. Time is defined as having started at the beginning of the Space Race in 1957 when no human had yet left Earth, and distance is defined as the distance from Earth that humans have traveled.

Humans made it to the Moon in 1969. It wasn't very far into the solar system, but it was a start. The next step in exploration is still speculative, but the authors have two different scenarios for when humans will reach Mars. The first humans will set foot on the Red Planet in 2038, which is when NASA's Artemis program is planning for. Given the history of delays in the human space exploration program, it could be as late as 2048. They use this separate starting point to create a delayed timeline of the rest of the exploration steps, and it has a big impact on the dates of other milestones.

The exploration of the rest of the solar system isn't limited to reaching Mars. NASA's budget and level of space exploration technologies are two variables used by the authors.

The agency only represents one country, even if that country has the most extensive space program in the world. It can act as a proxy for space exploration funding, though the private sector has been gaining more attention recently. There is a lot of debate about whether the first person on Mars will be from a government agency. Either way, using NASA's budget as a variable in the equation unlocks a linear relationship between time and a non-inflation-adjusted budget.

The authors use a model of the number of papers published in a given year that mention deep space exploration as a proxy for the level of technology necessary to complete those missions. The relationship between the number of papers and time is exponential, reaching a high of almost 2,000 papers per year recently.

The equation can be solved by plugging in the data points for distance and time of the beginning of the space race, the first crewed landing on the Moon, and the first crewed landing on Mars. Dates of milestone begin to fall out from that model. Jupiter's system in 2103 and the Asteroid Belt in 20 73 could be reached by humanity. There are some significant differences based on the uncertainty of the planned Mars landing. The general trend is one of exponential exploration, as long as we continue to progress with our current level of technological and budgetary levels. That would be great for a space fan.

You can learn more.

The impact of economic constraints on the projected time frame for human-crewed deep space exploration was studied.

The value of space exploration.

Artemis 1 probably won't launch until August.