Images of wrecked and abandoned vehicles are calling into question the quality and reliability of Russian-made military hardware.
According to a recent report by the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the conflict has damaged the reputation of Russia's defence equipment in Southeast Asia.
The value of Russia's defence sales to Southeast Asia has plummeted since 2014, despite Russia being the largest exporter of arms to the region over the past two decades.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said that the war in Ukraine will make it difficult for the defence industry to revive sales.
Russian-made military hardware has been damaged by poor performance by the Russian armed forces.
Buyers are said to be wary of specific pieces.
On April 7, one of Russia's most advanced fighters, a fourth-generation-plus SU-35, was shot down over Ukraine by an anti-aircraft missile. Vietnam has reportedly been considering purchasing the SU-35, though to what extent this incident will influence its procurement decision remains to be seen.
On April 14, in the Black Sea, Ukrainian armed forces used anti-ship cruise missiles to destroy Russia's guided-missile cruiser Moskva, making it the largest naval vessel to be destroyed since the second world war.
The equipment destroyed on the battlefield includes tanks used by Vietnam and Laos, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers used by Indonesia, and military attack and transport helicopters used by multiple Southeast Asian countries.
There are many reasons for the poor performance. Storey pointed to endemic corruption within the armed forces that resulted in funds being misappropriated.
The real failure of Russia is not its equipment, but its tactics, incompetent leadership, and flawed assumptions behind the decision-making to go to war.
Russian equipment has a reputation for being cheap but reliable. Now, Abuza said, that is less true, as Moscow's advanced anti-armour missiles and well-armed drones are matched against Ukraine's force.
To replenish its heavy losses, Moscow may direct its defence industrial sector to divert military equipment manufactured for export to recapitalise its own armed forces.
Negotiations are unlikely to restart because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Vietnam is the most ardent supporter of Russian arms, but Covid-19 has stopped any discussions about its long talked-about plan to purchase more.
Russia is the second largest arms exporter.
It is the No 1 in Southeast Asia. The value of Russia's arms exports to the region was more than double that of the United States, France, Germany, and China.
Russia has the most important defence customers in Southeast Asia.
Russia is willing to sell a full range of military equipment to these countries at prices that are cheaper than those in the US and Europe.
Unlike the US and European countries, Russian defence companies do not take into account a country's human rights record when selling arms.
Russia's defence industry faces other threats.
The economic sanctions imposed by the US, European and Asian countries will make it more difficult for Russian defence companies to conduct financial transactions.
Russia will restrict its defence industrial sector's access to advanced technologies critical to the manufacture of modern military hardware, and which Moscow itself does not produce and cannot easily purchase from other countries, because of vital export controls imposed on Russia.
Semiconductors, microelectronics, machine tools and software are included.
This will affect the production of military equipment for use by Russia's armed forces and overseas buyers, as well as the provision of spare parts, munitions and upgrade packages to existing customers.
Storey said that foreign buyers may decide to switch to more reliable sources of military hardware.
All Southeast Asian countries that currently rely on Russia for major military equipment will be vulnerable to the potential disruption of spare parts supply due to the war and sanctions.
Most buyers of Russian military equipment rely on Moscow for spare parts as part of their after-sales service support.
He said that the potential disruption in the operability and availability of big-ticket assets such as fighter jets, which means simply disposing of them due, is other than some countries that may have already procured a sufficient stockpile to last for a certain period.
Operators of Russian assets in Southeast Asia are expected to conserve the existing stocks of spare parts and reduce the frequencies of their assets so they can keep them longer in service.
They are likely to try to find alternative sources. Even 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266 800-381-0266
India might become a potential source of parts for Russian equipment since its own defence industries have recently sought to manufacture some of these items under licence.
India has made alternate plans for potential disruption, chiefly by focusing more on components made in India to stave off possible shortages, and smaller clients such as Indonesia have expressed concerns about maintenance, repairs and overhaul of Russian.
When considering the higher level of maintenance Russian equipment requires compared to Western equivalents, spare parts are an important source of revenue for Moscow.
Abuza said that North Korea could try to enter the arms market in Southeast Asia.
The region has been limited in its presence, with likely buyers of its weapons, ammunition and spare parts being the ones that already favour Soviet-era weaponry, he said.
He said that North Korea could try to stem into the regional market as they manufacture Soviet-era weapons. They have to be imposed.
He pointed out that the international community needs to step up monitoring and interdictions of the military junta in Myanmar.
It was not wise to discount the Russians completely, as their military equipment was generally found to be affordable compared to Western equivalents.
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