Jeremy Grantham warned that US stocks could decline as much as 80% from their highs, and warned that there could be pain from the surge in asset prices.
In an interview with CNBC this week, the market historian predicted that inflation would remain stubborn, and that the Federal Reserve's current challenges were very serious.
On the same day, we were down 19.9% on the S&P 500 and 27% on the Nasdaq. We are likely to do twice that. The stock-market decline could take a couple of years, but if we are unlucky, we would do three legs like that.
We should be in a recession quickly, and profit margins from a real peak have a long way to go.
This bubble looks very much like 2000, focused on US tech. I fear that there are more serious differences between 2000 and 2000. We are selling at a higher multiple of family income than we did at the top of the so-called housing bubble in 2006 because of the mess with housing. The bond market had the lowest lows in 6,000 years of history. Energy has put up metal prices, and food prices are higher than they have ever been before.
This has turned out to be very dangerous because we are messing with all of the assets.
This kind of 2000 bubble that we have is likely to turn into the 1970s, where inflation is always a part of the background discussion, and where growth rate starts to dwindle away. In the 1970s, there were shades of stagflation, where commodities are intermittently scarce, price jags here and there, and the whole system is so strung out that it has lost its resilience.
The Fed are hamstrung. They have to put inflation up at the top of the agenda, and that takes away all the ammunition that they had back in 2000 and the housing bust.
There is a lot of work to be done. I am sure the Federal Reserve guys are sweating about this one, because there is a big difference between 8% inflation in the US and zero interest rates.
Grantham expects inflation to linger because declining birth rates across the developed world will lead to.
A lot of the perfect things in the capitalist world have begun to fade away.
The CEOs of See's Candies, Dairy Queen, and Borsheims were interviewed. They gave a look at Warren Buffet's company, and shared how they are dealing with inflation and the Pandemic.