A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows that Americans are more likely to vote in the fall if the Supreme Court overturns the abortion law.

Abortion rights protest

Activists rally outside the State Capitol in support of abortion rights.

AFP via Getty Images

The poll found that 49% of adults said they were more likely to vote based on the contents of the draft opinion.

Democrats are more likely to vote if they oppose abortion rights than if they support it.

A majority of respondents think that the abortion rights should not be changed.

22% of respondents said abortion should be available in the first three months of a pregnant woman's life, and 23% said it should only be available in cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the pregnant woman.

75% of Americans oppose policies that make it a criminal offense to perform an abortion, 69% oppose policies that ban abortion six to eight weeks into a pregnant woman's uterus, and 80% oppose laws that allow private citizens to file lawsuits against anyone who aids or abets an abortion.

A majority of people are against 15-week abortion bans, while a majority of people are in favor of laws that allow abortion pills to be sent by mail.

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It was 56%. In the wake of the draft opinion leak, the share of respondents who said they have little to no confidence in the Supreme Court has risen.

Even as many GOP state lawmakers are poised to pass abortion restrictions, most Republicans are against them. Majorities of Republicans are against laws that make performing an abortion a crime, ban abortions at six to eight weeks, and let people be sued for aiding and abetting an abortion. 34% of Republicans think abortion should not be allowed under any circumstances, while 34% want exceptions for rape, incest, and to save the pregnant person's life.

What We Don’t Know

What impact the Supreme Court's potential abortion ruling will have on the elections. According to the poll, 45% of Americans plan to vote for Democrats in the elections, while 42% will support Republicans. Republicans have a slight edge when it comes to voter enthusiasm, so it's hard to say if Democrats will translate their support for abortion rights into electoral wins.

Key Background

The Supreme Court is expected to make a decision on Mississippi's 15-week abortion ban in June. 26 states are likely to ban abortion if the court overturns the case. A wave of anger among abortion rights activists has been set off by the release of the draft opinion by the court. There are a number of races that will determine how abortion rights will fare if the court overturns the case. Voters in Kentucky and Montana will have to decide if they want to restrict abortion rights in their states.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll: Abortion Rights, May, 2022.

The abortion rights will be on the ballot in November.

If the Supreme Court overturns the Wade decision, what will happen?

How Americans Really Feel About Abortion: The Sometimes Surprising Poll Results.