Vast Swath of US Is at Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns

The electric grid is threatened by plant closings and shortages.

A large swath of North America from the Great Lakes to the West Coast is at risk of power cuts this summer due to a number of factors.

According to an annual report, power supplies in the US and Canada will be stretched after two years of disruptions. It is among the most dire assessments yet from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Climate change is a factor. The western US is in a historic dry spell, with forecasts calling for a hotter-than-average summer. The fight against global warming has its own risks as older coal-fired plants close faster than wind farms, solar facilities and batteries can replace them.

Southwest solar projects and Texas transmission lines are being delayed because of supply-chain issues. The threat of cyber attacks on power grids is growing because of US support for Ukraine.

In the Midwest, enough older plants have shut down to cut generation capacity by 2.3% since last summer. Demand is expected to grow. When temperatures are normal, grid managers may need power from neighboring regions to keep air conditioners running, and a heat wave or low wind speeds could cause power to be cut off. The Midwest could face power shortfalls as plants close, but not until 2024. The region is missing a key transmission line that was damaged by a December tornado.

The output from hydroelectric dams will be affected by the weather. According to the report, it threatens power plants that draw their cooling water from the Missouri River, which is running low. The smoke from the fires could ruin the skies, cutting the output from solar plants while simultaneously forcing homes with rooftop solar panels to rely more on the grid.

Last year, NERC warned that electric grids that serve more than 40% of the US population were at risk of being offline. Most systems held up during the heat. In the Pacific Northwest, Avista Corp. used rolling power cuts during a heat wave in June, leaving more than 9000 homes and businesses without power.

Some of the states cited in the report have already issued their own summer forecasts. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said in a Monday report that the state has enough power to meet expected record demand from June through September.

Brad Jones, Ercot's interim chief executive officer, said during a press briefing Tuesday that they were very confident about the summer. When supplies are strained, Texans will be asked to conserve earlier than in the past.

California's grid operators have warned that the state faces a risk of power cuts during the next three summers as the state shifts to cleaner energy. Electricity supplies grow strained on hot summer evenings when the sun sets on the state's many solar plants due to the lack of hydropower generation.

During a May 6 press conference, Alice Reynolds, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, said that reliability is going to be difficult in this time of transition.

Mark Chediak assisted.