The Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average as the Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1. The current of warm tropical water that is looping far into the Gulf for this time of year has the power to turn tropical storms into monster hurricanes.
The 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks is called the loop current.
When the loop current reaches this far north this early in the season, it can cause disaster for people along the Northern Gulf Coast.
You can easily spot the loop current if you look at the temperature maps. The Florida Current is the main contributor to the Gulf Stream, as it goes through the Florida Strait south of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm can explode in strength when it draws energy from the warm water from the giant eddies that spin off from the current.
The way the loop current is this year is similar to the way it was in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. Seven of the 27 named storms were major hurricanes. Two of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record occurred that year, as a result of the crossing of the loop current.
I have been studying ocean heat content for more than 30 years. The conditions in the Gulf in May 2022, are cause for concern. Nineteen tropical storms are predicted, 32% more than average, and nine hurricanes. Some of the storms could be helped by the loop current.
Warm ocean water doesn't mean more storms. Tropical storms can strengthen into hurricanes once they reach waters that are 78 F (26 C) or warmer.
The top 100 feet (30 meters) of the ocean is where hurricanes draw most of their strength. Warm spots in the upper ocean are usually allowed to cool quickly. The Gulf common water is saltier than the subtropical water of the loop current. The warm current and its eddies can retain heat to great depths because of these effects.
The water temperature in the loop current was 78 F in May of 2022, which is about 330 feet (100 meters) below the surface. The heat could go down to 500 feet by the summer.
The surface temperature was over 86 F (30 C) and the heat was down to about 590 feet (180 meters). With favorable atmospheric conditions, the storm exploded into a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.
Warm ocean water can create a huge amount of warm, moist air within a storm. When you boil a large pot of spaghetti on the stove, think about how the steam will rise as the water gets hotter. The pressure drops as more heat and water rise. The horizontal pressure difference between the center of the storm and its periphery causes the wind to speed up and the storm to become more dangerous.
The pressure on the eddies will continue to fall since the loop Current has so much heat. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest central pressure on record in the Atlantic.
There are other clues to how the season will play out. The climate is different between El Ni and La Ni.
The jet stream is pushed north by the colder water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean. That weakens wind shear in the southern U.S. The change in wind speeds and wind directions is called wind shear. Tropical storms can be torn apart by too much wind shear. More hurricanes can be caused by less wind shear and more humidity in the atmosphere.
It is possible that La Ni will weaken later in the year, allowing for more wind shear towards the end of the season. The upper atmosphere is not doing much to stop a storm.
It is too early to tell what will happen with the steering winds that guide tropical storms. If tropical storms form in the Atlantic before then, the conditions over West Africa are crucial. Dust from the Sahara can reduce the chance of storms.
The ocean's temperature is increasing as global temperatures rise. The oceans hold a lot of the heat that is trapped by greenhouse gases and can be used to fuel hurricanes.
There won't be more storms overall, but there will be more storms in the Atlantic as the temperatures rise. The study found that the storms produced more rain than they would have in a world without human-caused climate change.
The warm eddies of the loop current have more heat than in the past. The impact of a warming trend could be devastating.
The Conversation is a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Nick Shay is from the University of Miami.
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