Dan Orlovsky and Jeff Saturday think the Bills are the best team in the league. (1:45) The Bills might have ended last season with a coin flip and a heartbreaking loss, but according to the Football Power Index, they are the best team in football and the Super Bowl favorites. The Buffalo team is the top team in the model and is about a half-point ahead of the Green Bay team. The Bills have a 7% chance to win the Super Bowl, followed closely by the Rams, Packers, Chiefs, and Chargers. What is the Football Power Index? Our model includes ratings and projections for every team in the league, from how good they are on defense to what their chances are of winning their division. A full description of changes and improvements can be found at the bottom of the page. The preseason version of FPI is not connected to betting markets, which was a big change. Let's talk football. The league&s best team is the first to learn about the eight takeaways from the ratings. More:
Complete team-by-team FPI ratings
Chances to make the playoffs Considering the team&s performance last season, it is not a surprise to see the Bills at the top of the rankings. The Buffalo Bills looked like the best team in football at the end of the season, and quarterback Josh Allen had one of the greatest games of all time in the playoffs. Buffalo was over the top for FPI. It begins with Allen. The fifth-year quarterback is third in our quarterback rating, behind only Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. He is a big reason why the Bills edge the other teams here. We saw from Buffalo last season that it doesn't end with Allen. The Bills led the league in defensive efficiency last season, and they boast a high-end No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs and an above-average offensive line. Signing Von Miller will help the cause. There are no holes on this team. 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse -- in points -- that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. It is a predictive rating. pic.twitter.com/9oDRKm8nKR
FPI joins Bills Mafia
Even though the Bills are favored to win the Super Bowl, why only 7%? The top team in the preseason last year was the Chiefs. We upgraded our process to better account for the difference between teams expected ability and actual ability. There are quite a few candidates that are close to Buffalo's talent level. There are plenty of other teams that could be better than Buffalo, and every team still has to win at least three playoff games to win the title.
The flip side of a lower probability for favorites to win the Super Bowl is that percentage points have to go somewhere. They move to the second and third tiers. The collection of squad that can win it all if player development, luck and injuries break right for them are not the favorites.
The Colts have a 50% chance to win the division after trading for Matt Ryan.
TheCardinals looked like a strong contender last season before falling apart down the stretch, but they still have a solid roster and Kyler Murray under center.
The Broncos have a good offensive line.
The Ravens were derailed by injuries a year ago, but with a healthy Lamar Jackson and healthy secondary, they could be quite the threat.
The teams have a 4% chance of winning it all.
The model agrees that it is a tight contest, as all four teams in the division rank between 4 and 14. The projections show that the Chiefs are the best team in the West.
With a strong Kansas City passing offense and an average defense, the Chiefs are on top, even without the services of Tyreek Hill. The model believes that an elite passing team will always beat out an elite rushing, rush defense or pass defense team, all else being equal, because offense, and particularly passing offense, is the most important part of team construction.
Even though they think they are the best team in the division, they don't think the Chiefs will win the division. The Broncos are more likely to win the division than the Chiefs, and the Bolts have a better chance to win the conference's top seed.
Why? It comes down to the schedule. The Kansas City has a rougher 17-game slate in front of it than any other team. The three opponents that the division-mates don't face are brutal. The Broncos get the Jets, Jets and Ravens, while the Falcons, Dolphins, and Browns are the opponents for the Chargers. Even though the model believes Kansas City is the best team of the trio, that is a pretty big difference.
There is not. Even though the model will be changed in 2022, it is still skeptical of the Bengals. Cincinnati has a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The model is still not completely in on the quarterback. He was the 12th ranked Total QBR last season, but he was still middle-of-the-road during the playoffs. The team's defense is expected to be ok despite the excellent receiving corps and upgraded offensive line help.
Our model gives Cincinnati the third-best chance to win the AFC North at 24%, behind Cleveland and Baltimore.
The Bears are the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, but they lost out to the Jets.
After a terrible first season as a quarterback, FPI is down on Justin Fields, who finished with the worst QBR in the league. There isn't a whole lot of other strengths on the Bears' roster, despite the fact that there are still a few good players remaining in the defensive front.
The Bears have a chance to pick first next April, followed by the Jets, Texans,Jaguars, and Falcons.
The spike that wasn't seen after the Cowboys' 12-5 season ended in a wild-card loss to the 49ers is predicted to be a strong follow-up. They are the highest-rated team that is believed to have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than their odds indicate.
Why all the love? Dallas is ranked fourth in offensive and sixth in defensive FPI rating, and it sees strength on both sides of the ball.
Despite a down season in 2021, our EPA model is still fairly high on the quarterback. The Cowboys quarterback has demonstrated a high level of performance in the past, and he remains in the prime of his career. We are working under the assumption that Michael Gallup is healthy.
The Cowboys ranked third in efficiency on the defensive side of the ball. They bring back stars such as DeMarcus Lawrence and Trevon Diggs.
The result? The Cowboys have a 45% chance to win the division and a 16% chance to be the top seed.
5 in the model's rating system and are just 0.2 and 0.3 points behind the Chiefs and Rams, respectively. The projections from the FPI are not all that favorable of the chances of the Bolts this season. The Saints are a close second to the Bucs in the odds to win the division. Why is New Orleans so close? There are two major factors.
The Saints and the rest of the division don't see the three solid teams that the Bucs face: the Chiefs, Packers and Cowboys. The Raiders, Vikings and Eagles are in the same slots as the Saints.
The model assumes a regression on that side of the ball since Bruce Arians is no longer the head coach. There is a counter that the continuity is still there, but that is just how the rules are set up.
The short answer is that they are. The long answer is that depends on the quarterback.
For now, it is assumed that it is Trey Lance under center. San Francisco paid a steep price to trade up and get Lance in the 2021 draft. If he were to not be the starting quarterback by Year 2, that would be a major failure. If Lance is the case, the model doesn't see how the 49ers could possibly justify a win total of 10 and be considered one of the better teams.
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Under the assumption that one way or another not playing is a bad sign, our quarterback rating docks QBs who don't play. Lance came in as a strong prospect, but after just 71 pass attempts in his first year, our model views him in the same range as players like Matt Corral, Joe Flacco, and Nick Foles. He could be a star in his first season as a starter. The mean expectation for Lance is not great.
The run defense is strong, but it is hard to overcome a liability at quarterback with superstars like Samuel and Bosa. It is our best guess at this point. The 49ers have a 39% chance of making the playoffs and are way down in the rankings.
If Jimmy Garoppolo were to return as the starter, where would the 49ers rank? They would move up to 13th in the rankings. The model assumes that the 49ers will get from Lance on average, but Garoppolo has posted decent QBRs throughout his career, which is a lot better than that.
The FPI was upgraded and changed this year. The most notable change was moving away from gambling lines as an input. We used win totals as a significant driver of preseason ratings, but betting markets are no longer in the model. Preseason ratings are determined by a combination of past team performance, our EPA/play metric for all starting and backup quarterbacks, and a predictive rating for non-QB starters based on an ensemble of several player ratings.
Predictive unit ratings can be broken out into run and pass games. The game prediction model takes unit ratings and factors in how frequently an offense passes above or below expectation into account. The offensive advantage from passing for the Chiefs is slightly more pronounced than it would be for a typical team because they pass more often after controlling for the game scenario. The current degree of home-field advantage is reflected in the model.
The way the model handles uncertainty has been upgraded. The model recognizes that there are significant error bands around the best estimate for how strong a team is relative to a league-average opponent. In some estimates the team&s rating will be higher than the best estimate, and in others it will be lower. That gives a more realistic simulation and projection based on a certain scenario. If we ask the model for the Jets chances to win the Super Bowl, they are more likely to be those where their rating is higher than what we expect. The ratings and simulations determine the chances of the Jets making the Super Bowl.
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