There is still a global epidemic. Public health experts think it will last at least another five years, but how this crisis plays out is up to us.
A new report from the International Science Council lays out three scenarios that could happen by the year 2027.
The report was written by a panel of 20 experts.
Their commentary isn't an attempt to predict the future, but their report helps narrow down and illustrate some of the possible actions the world can take to minimize the impact of the Pandemic.
Improving vaccine development and distribution could help the SARS-CoV-2 virus reach low endemic levels with limited, controlled transmission in most countries.
Many lives could be saved and the risk of emerging variant could be reduced if the percentage of people fully vaccine against COVID-19 increases. There are benefits for mental health, the economy and sustainable development.
The coronaviruses will not disappear, but its spread will become more manageable.
That is not where we are headed. According to the report, governments have focused on national strategies instead of international collaboration.
Our lack of action so far suggests that vaccination rates are low. If they don't increase, the novel coronaviruses could become endemic with seasonal surge that would overwhelm hospitals in multiple countries and require updated vaccines and the use of antiviral pharmaceuticals.
The most likely scenario is an exacerbation of global inequalities. The United Nations will set back the goals by a decade.
The key lessons are very clear. The report concludes that the risks will remain high even if the acute phase of the Pandemic is over in some countries with high vaccination rates.
There is no policy domain that remains unaffected, and governments must recognize that the Pandemic will not be resolved quickly. They should not pretend that the crisis is over because mortality is reduced. There will be many years of difficulties and challenges for many citizens.
Vulnerable people, like women, children and the elderly, will be most affected. Future health system collapse and food insecurity will be faced by low-income nations.
If nationalism and populism continue to grow, the authors of the report worry that trust between governments and between states and their people will decline.
They call it the "Missed Recovery" scenario. The exact opposite of what is needed to deal with an international crisis is what protectionist policies could hamper.
Less than 60 percent of the global population would be fully vaccined against COVID-19, and low-income countries would still have limited access to initial doses and antiviral medicines.
As a result, COVID-19 remains largely unregulated, with severe recurrences in parts of the world.
Government needs to collaborate and invest in health care systems, integrate scientific advice systems, and address widening inequalities in education and wealth to avoid a grim reality.
Governments should resist the temptation to cut climate targets for short-term gain.
It is possible that climate change and environmental destruction will make future Pandemics more likely. No one wants to go through this again.
The value of international scientific cooperation has been demonstrated even in the face of cascading environmental risks, according to the United Nations secretary-general for disaster risk reduction.
Efforts must be renewed to build a system that addresses inequalities while preparing us for the next crisis. We have the chance to learn from the last two years. The sustainable development goals will slip out of reach if not.
The International Science Council published the report.
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