Many people don't know if their house is at risk because of the billions of dollars in damage caused by fires every year.
Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty ImagesFor more than 50 years, anyone buying or renting a house could look up how vulnerable it is to flooding. For wildfire risk, homeowners were mostly in the dark.
Even with thousands of homes destroyed by wildfires every year, most people who move receive little or no information about the risk they are taking.
A non-profit research group is releasing a tool for homeowners. The wildfire risk for properties in the lower 48 states is shown in the ratings tool by First Street Foundation. The information will be shown on other real estate sites later.
There is a gap left by the government. Only a few states have mapped the areas most at risk to wildfire. Federal maps aren't meant to be used for individual properties
Knowing about wildfire risk may not deter buyers. Many homeowners can still make their homes safer by trimming back flammable vegetation and using fire-resistant building materials, according to wildfire experts.
Kelly Pohl is an associate director of Headwaters Economics, a land use think tank.
Tom was assigned a tough assignment in 1991. More than 3000 homes were destroyed by the Oakland hills firestorm. The search and rescue team was called in to comb through the area looking for human remains.
It looked like a war zone. Everything is destroyed. Everything you are used to is gone.
His team found people who died in the rubble. Many of the people who died in the fire were trying to escape down narrow, winding roads.
The Bay Area's hyper-competitive housing market made it difficult to find a new home in the Oakland Hills. He and his spouse closed on a house after bidding on several. It is a few miles from where the Oakland fire burned. But that didn't cross his mind.
He says they didn't make that connection.
In the process of deciding where to move, many homeowners and renters receive little information about the dangers of wildfires. California is one of the few states that requires a one-page form to be filled out when buying or selling a home, but it's easy to overlook in the piles of papers that home buyers have to review.
It's just pages and pages and boring legalese.
First Street Foundation set out to map wildfire risk after releasing similar home ratings for flooding. Climate change is being taken into account in the wildfire ratings, which are ranked one through 10.
Matthew Eby, executive director of First Street Foundation, says that the results are going to be surprising. In areas that have high levels of risk already, like California, we see almost a 50% increase.
More than 30 million homes in the lower 48 states are at risk of being hit by a wildfire. Over the next 30 years, 1.5 million properties have a greater than 26% chance of burning.
Even a small risk of wildfire adds up over the life of a 30-year mortgage, but that cumulative probability is difficult to comprehend. Disasters are framed by their annual risk.
To do the analysis, First Street ran complex computer models. To determine how vulnerable each house is, they used satellite imagery and created computer programs to assess how much vegetation surrounds a home and what the roof material is.
Experts warn that maps are not perfect. People living outside of risky areas on a map may feel a false sense of security. When communities can provide details about local conditions, wildfire maps are more accurate. The computer models that simulation of wildfire spread need an update given the complex dynamics of weather and fire.
For fifty years, planners and homeowners have had a better idea of the dangers of floods. Congress created a landmark program after a series of destructive hurricanes in 1968. FEMA released maps showing where floods were likely to happen as part of the National Flood Insurance Program.
David Bascom, who leads FEMA's Engineering Resources Branch, says that it is the primary resource for many communities across the nation.
Few states or communities have mapped their wildfire risk, despite the fact that wildfires have taken an increasing toll across the country. California created maps in 2007, but they are considered out of date and state fire officials are working on an update. The state of Oregon is in the process of creating maps.
The risk zones are a tool that helps communities prepare for wildfire. In California, they determine whether new homes must be constructed to meet wildfire building codes, which require fire-resistant building materials that reduce the chances a home will ignite. State and federal grants are given to cities and counties based on their wildfire risk rating.
Congress mandated that the U.S. Forest Service create wildfire maps. The result, Wildfire Risk to Communities, shows how cities and neighborhoods are vulnerable to wildfire, but isn't detailed enough for individual properties and homes.
We don't have property level data on how susceptible each person's home is, because it's a broad, national mapping project.
While seeing a home with a high chance of burning may deter some buyers or renters, others may have to overlook it in favor of finding a place to live. Millions of houses are already built in wildfire-prone areas, not just in the Western U.S., and a national housing shortage leaves people with few options.
We already live in places that have a lot of risk, so we need to think about how we can become better fire-adapted and build our homes and communities safer.
Homeowners can still benefit from knowing that wildfire is a risk. Many houses are set ablaze by embers that can be blown far ahead of the actual fire. Studies show that affordable home projects can improve the chances of a home surviving.
In the Oakland hills, he has been doing that. He and his neighbors worked to clear the overgrown vegetation on the empty lot. He cut down a large hedge of cypress and replaced it with gravel at his house. He wants to make sure the routes for people to get out of the way are clear.
We need to shift away from a mindset of "me, me, me" to a mindset of "we're in this together."
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