The threat of a trade war is being raised by the U.K. government, which is threatening to overrule large parts of the deal.
The Prime Minister of the U.K. will travel to Northern Ireland on Monday in a bid to de-escalate tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol, which requires checks on some goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K.
The trip was hastily arranged after the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland blocked the election of a speaker in the Assembly.
The Democratic Unionist Party refused to re-enter the executive until the protocol was changed. The deal came into force in January last year in order to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
The protocol must be abolished because it undermines Northern Ireland's place in the U.K.
The Northern Ireland protocol requires checks on some goods entering the province from the rest of the U.KSinn Fein has the right to nominate the first minister after becoming the first nationalist party to win the most seats in the history of Northern Ireland.
A new government cannot be formed without the help of the Democratic Unionist Party. The first minister and deputy minister should be unionists and nationalists.
There is concern among U.K. lawmakers about the lack of a functioning devolved government. There are fears of a return to street violence that could threaten the peace since the Good Friday Agreement.
The Good Friday Agreement ended 30 years of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland when it was signed in 1998.
Despite signing up to the Northern Ireland protocol, Johnson is considering making changes to the deal which could lead to a trade war with the EU.
If the EU's position does not change, there will be a necessity to act over the protocol. He said that the agreement was designed before the coronaviruses epidemic, Russia's war with Ukraine and the cost of living crisis.
If EU lawmakers don't show flexibility over the protocol, the U.K. will have no choice but to act.
The European Commission Vice- President said that it is not acceptable for the U.K. to make such threats.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s new first minister-elect.In October last year, the EU proposed changes to the protocol that focused on more flexibility in the area of food, plant and animal health. This plan was rejected by the U.K.
The U.K. government is simply looking for what I think in the jargon of current political chatter.
The U.K. government shows it is standing up to the EU by abandoning the protocol.
When asked if the protocol position appeared to be designed to distract the British electorate from issues such as the cost-of-living crisis and damaging local election results, he said: "Exactly." It comes around from time to time because of my reading.
The reality is that the EU has been open to discuss pragmatic ways to adapt the workings of the protocol and has gone along with various waivers and moratoriums.
Belgium’s De Croo and Germany’s Scholz have both called for the U.K. to avoid taking unilateral action over the Northern Ireland protocol.The Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has said that the U.K. shouldn't take action on its own because it would create a problem for the EU.
Our message is clear. At a news conference on May 10, De Croo said that agreements need to be respected.
The U.S. encouraged dialogue between Britain and the EU.
Theresa May warned that the U.K. could hurt Britain's reputation for obeying international law if it scraps parts of the protocol.
The U.K. government is not thought to have made a decision on whether to invoke the safeguard mechanism in the protocol.
According to Rahman, it would take at least six months to one year to agree on legislation that would allow the government to ignore the protocol.
In the short term, a more combative UK-EU relationship is likely, with the risk of a trade war only next year, Rahman said in a research note.
The pound was last seen at $1.2216 on Monday morning, down around 0.4%.
There are a lot of reasons for sterling to weaken. The strength of the U.S. economy and the superior hawkishness of the U.S. Fed make them more likely to raise interest rates.
If the U.K.-EU trade deal blew up, you could expect some additional weakness in sterling.