The Rangers went out in front for good when Chris Kreider shot too much for Louis Domingue. (1:02) We made it to the final two games of the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs to determine which two teams will advance and which two will not. You can get ready for the NHL Game 7s by watching the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Dallas Stars are at the Flames. We are breaking down a path to victory for each team, identifying the X factors in both contests and predicting the final scores. Go to:
NYR-PIT
CGY-DAL
7 p.m. You can watch live on the ESPYS.
Leading scorer: Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel.
Adam Fox (3 G | 6 A), Rangers
The path to victory for Pittsburgh might not be known until after Game 7. A team can hope for both.
Regardless of who's in the lineup, the Pens should rely on what has generated success for them to date, and that's throwing off Shesterkin. The Vezina Trophy finalist was average through the first five games of the series, and the Penguins created plenty of traffic and scoring opportunities to make that case. The formula is there for the taking regardless of who is dressed in black and gold, even though Crosby was a primary factor in much of Pittsburgh's offensive success before being knocked out of Game 5.
Shesterkin has been the most Valuable Player for New York all season. The way through for Pittsburgh is recognizing that Shesterkin is not impervious, even though slowing down the likes of Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin is helpful. The open window is for the Penguins.
The easiest path to victory for the Rangers would be if they didn't have a roadblock in the way. The top line dominates 5-on-5 and acts as a stabilizing force in road games when he is in the lineup. WhenCrosby isn't in the lineup, the Pens are flustered and give up two-goal leads in Games 5 and 6.
The key for the Rangers in Game 7 is not to allow a defensive pushover in the early part of the game. The Rangers were playing soft and the Pens built a lead in Game 6. It would be better for Shesterkin if they tightened up defensively.
The X factor is the depth scoring for the Penguins. Do they have it or not? If Crosby is out for Game 7 and the Rangers do their job to minimize the impact of Jake Guentzel, who else will step up? Bryan Rust has seven points in the playoffs. Jeff Carter has four goals. Evan has three points in six games. This is not the time to hold back anyone on the bench with access to a puck, as the Penguins will have to throw the kitchen sink at Shesterkin to advance.
Shesterkin might still have the sound of fans chanting his name as he takes the ice in Game 7, haunting him along with his performance in this series. Shesterkin has given up three or more goals in five of six games in the series, getting pulled twice. There have been bounces. The defense in front of him needed to be better. The things Shesterkin handled brilliantly in the regular season have not translated to the playoffs.
All of that gets erased with a stellar Game 7, with a performance that negates any debate about whether he can win in the playoffs.
The final score prediction was Shilton.
Wyshynski: With Crosby, 4-2 Penguins; without Crosby, 5-2 Rangers
9:30 p.m. You can watch live on the internet.
Stars' leading scorer: Joe Pavelski.
Johnny Gaudreau (1 G | 5 A), Flames
Pick up the pace. The Stars used their speed to create offensive chances and get back to interrupt rush attempts in the Game 6 win.
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The hope is that the Stars stars are the difference-makers. In Game 6 of the series, the line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson had a scoring-chance advantage of 12-1 and scored a goal. This line was one of the most dominant in the regular season, and it can do the same in Game 7. Dallas is in business if Jake Oettinger continues to hold up his end of the bargain.
Shutting down the Joe Pavelski line is a path to victory for the city. That is it. That is the key.
The team was a good defensive team throughout the season. For all of their own high-octane talent, the Flames can't have a repeat of Game 6 in which they're trading rush chances and getting frustrated that Oettinger is repeatedly up to the task of stopping them. The Flames slamming the door and yelling on the bench won't help, but they will use that passion into sound defensive-zone play, smart breakouts and a punishing forecheck that slows Dallas' best line to put them on a fast track to the second round.
The Flames have been the most consistent on-ice presence in this series. There is not a lot of flash to what he does. Quiet confidence and leadership is what the Flames need. Lindholm can offer that. He is likely to put pucks in the net. He can win a critical faceoff in any zone, and it feels like he can make a difference every shift. Lindholm shouldn't be underestimated. He may never be again after Game 7.
The Stars signed Pavelski because of Wyshynski's X factor. They wanted a player who could make a difference on the defensive end or in scoring a goal that puts them over the top. He has three goals and two assists in six games against the Flames. He has 64 goals in the playoffs, fourth among active players. He will factor into the outcome of Game 7. It is a matter of how much of a factor he will be in the game.
The final score prediction was Shilton.
Wyshynski: 4-2 Flames
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